This morning Ed pointed out that a vote on a war powers resolution has been pushed back until June. Ed's take (and I think he's right) is that the delays created by Iran's refusal to offer anything at all is wearing thin with Republicans, most of whom are up for re-election in a few more months. Ed's post closes with this:
Johnson has given Trump a brief reprieve, perhaps only a couple of weeks, before a potentially embarrassing vote of confidence in his war leadership. He should take that time to put an end to the IRGC's stall tactics and perfidies and make it clear that the IRGC has no choice but to meet the US and Israel on our terms.
I'm starting to suspect Trump has reached the same conclusion. Why? Well, he just canceled a plan to remain in New Jersey at his golf course in Bedminster for the weekend.
President Trump has cancelled plans to stay in New Jersey this weekend and will return to Washington tonight after an event in New York with Representative Mike Lawler.
Here's the change in his schedule.
Trump has canceled his visit to Trump National Golf Club Bedminster and will instead spend the weekend at the White House, his updated schedule shows. pic.twitter.com/t3UFpSY2cJ
— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) May 22, 2026
That's interesting. Even more striking, Trump is planning to miss his son's wedding this weekend. He made the announcement on Truth Social today.
BREAKING: President Trump announces he will NOT attend his son Don Jr.'s wedding, saying government matters and his "love for the United States of America" are too important for him to leave the White House during this "important period of time."
— Fox News (@FoxNews) May 22, 2026
"While I very much wanted to be… pic.twitter.com/zgOJDlAYGq
While I very much wanted to be with my son, Don Jr., and the newest member of the Trump Family, his soon to be wife, Bettina, circumstances pertaining to Government, and my love for the United States of America, do not allow me to do so. I feel it is important for me to remain in Washington, D.C., at the White House during this important period of time. Congratulations to Don and Bettina! President DONALD J. TRUMP
So something is going on. It's apparently important that Trump is at the White House this weekend and not anywhere else, even his son's wedding. There must be a reason for that.
One obvious possibility is that he's finally calling time on Iran's delay tactics. If an attack were about to kick off tonight or tomorrow, that would explain why he needs to leave New Jersey, miss the wedding and be at the White House instead. The media would eat him alive if he were at his son's wedding celebrating while an attack was taking place.
But there's another alternative. What if Trump isn't returning for an attack but to sign a deal. Ed noticed this tweet from Noah Rothman referencing terms of a possible deal.
These terms are so impossibly favorable to Iran that I will believe it when I see pens put to paper. If Trump was going to surrender this hard, he could have done it weeks ago. https://t.co/tKZkNa8tx4 pic.twitter.com/X9uXqb2KfO
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) May 22, 2026
The link goes to this Substack piece by Alex Marquardt:
As expected, it would be a multi-step process, building on a previous 14-point proposal. The proposal is a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that sets up negotiations toward a “final deal.” It kicks the can down the road on the toughest issues so that the war can end.
Most notable: a large economic fund for damages to Iran, waivers on Iranian oil sales, eventual unfreezing of funds, lifting of sanctions and nothing firm on nuclear enrichment.
This deal seems pretty favorable to Iran, especially if they're not even committing up front to handing over their bomb-making materials. So I'm a bit skeptical of this. As Rothman says, if Trump was going to settle for this deal, he could have done that weeks ago.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is supposed to travel to West Point tomorrow to give a graduation speech but he could miss that if necessary. As far as other tea leaves go, some observers have noted that Iran's airspace cleared out two days ago.
🚨 Air traffic is now heavily avoiding Iranian airspace.
— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) May 22, 2026
The skies around Iran remain packed, but the country itself is turning into a near-empty corridor as airlines reroute around escalating military and security risks. https://t.co/IHnLhgsEJW pic.twitter.com/cGhaiqVelV
The same account posted this on Wednesday:
🚨 A major U.S. Air Force airlift surge into the Middle East is underway as Trump’s latest deadline for Iran rapidly approaches.
— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) May 20, 2026
Open-source flight trackers are showing unusually heavy military transport activity moving toward the region amid growing fears of another major… https://t.co/wN3l6LfqLU pic.twitter.com/Dj4H82CW0w
Remember, Trump said earlier this week that he came within an hour of launching new attacks but decided to give Iran a few more days.
Journalist:
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 19, 2026
"How close were you to striking Iran yesterday?"
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump:
"I was an hour away. We were all set to go. It would've been happening right now."
The clock Trump said was ticking almost ran out yesterday morning. https://t.co/LMT56Hcv3G pic.twitter.com/DNsMYYZYsp
That was Tuesday. It has been a few more days and nothing has changed. My guess is that Trump is returning to the White House to launch another attack, the one he called off at the last minute earlier this week. But I can't rule out the opposite possibility which is that he's going to announce some kind of deal instead. But given the kind of threats Iran has been making and their unwillingness to commit to handing over their nuclear material, that seems less likely.
Either way, I think we can expect some major developments on Iran in the next 12 hours. Stay tuned. If there is going to be a strike, it might start later tonight.
Update: We're all still chatting privately waiting to see what's going to happen and Beege noticed this.
I believe the liberation of the wonderful people of Cuba from the clutches of communism is close at hand.
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 22, 2026
Cuba Libre.
Is this the plan? I wrote about the possibility of Cuba getting the Venezuela treatment here when Raul Castro was indicted. Maybe that's why Trump has to be back at the White House?
It sure seems like something is going to happen.
Update: Trump's Deputy Chief of Staff just posted this to his private account.
— Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸🦅 (@DanScavino) May 23, 2026
Doughcon 1?
Domino's Pizza (1.4 miles from the Pentagon) is experiencing an extreme spike in activity at 227%. Pizzato Pizza (2.2 miles) also reports high traffic at 167%.
— Pentagon Pizza Watch (@pizzintwatch) May 22, 2026
DOUGHCON level is 1 as of Friday evening. pic.twitter.com/CT94hrtWts
Update: I've been trying to read the tea leaves but CBS News just has a story up for the last few hours.
The Trump administration was preparing Friday for a fresh round of military strikes against Iran, according to sources with direct knowledge of the planning, even as diplomacy continued...
Some members of the U.S. military and intelligence community canceled their plans for the Memorial Day weekend in anticipation of possible strikes, several sources said.
Defense and intelligence officials began updating recall rosters for U.S. installations overseas as tranches of troops stationed in the Middle East rotate out of theater, part of an effort to reduce the American military footprint in the region amid concern about possible Iranian retaliation.
Update: 30 minutes ago.
— Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸🦅 (@DanScavino) May 23, 2026
Update 5/23: No attacks last night. Trump posted this on Truth Social this morning.
JUST NOW: President Trump posts Iranian map with U.S. flag saying ‘United States of the Middle East !!👀
— Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial (@TruthTrumpPost) May 23, 2026
While Gulf allies have requested that the U.S. briefly pause direct military actions to allow back-channel mediation, Trump’s silent visual implies that something big may be… pic.twitter.com/aM7dv3ZB5X
Update: Beege noticed this.
🚨 BREAKING: Vice President JD Vance has made an UNPLANNED RETURN to Washington, DC, and his motorcade is racing to the White House
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 23, 2026
President Trump has summoned his whole national security team to a meeting on Iran.
POTUS is also scheduled to hold a conference call at 1pm ET… pic.twitter.com/bqLQ6r1ZVO
Some lawamkers are already suggesting a deal now, based on the idea that Iran can't be stopped from controlling traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, doesn't look so good.
If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force…
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 23, 2026
If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution.
This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel.
Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability.
It is important we get this right.
The rumored 60-day ceasefire — with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith — would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!
— Senator Roger Wicker (@SenatorWicker) May 23, 2026
This is the rumored deal they are reacting to:
U.S. and Iranian negotiators close to extending ceasefire by 60 days under deal to include gradual reopening of Hormuz, talks on enriched uranium stockpile, eased restrictions on Iran ports, sanctions relief & phased unfreezing of Tehran’s overseas assets. https://t.co/33Zy5w2R0Z
— Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) May 23, 2026
Here's a bit of the story:
People briefed on the high-stakes talks said it would include a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a commitment to discuss the diluting or handing over of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
The US would also ease its blockade of Iranian ports and, in phases, agree to sanctions relief and unfreezing Tehran’s assets held overseas.
Donald Trump told Axios on Saturday that he would meet his senior officials to discuss the proposal, but the US president added it was a “solid 50/50” whether he would be able to make a “good” deal or else “blow them to kingdom come”.
I don't see what we're getting out of this deal. A promise from Iran to discuss handing over enriched uranium? This isn't a promise to do it, just to discuss it. There's no way they agree to do it once the pressure is off and the oil is flowing again.
If the Islamic Republic gets a 60-day ceasefire extension based on vague promises of future talks, that is not diplomacy. It gives Iran time to recover, and in the process, the Islamic Republic wins while America gives up the leverage it has right now.
— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) May 23, 2026
60 days is enough for the… https://t.co/3ZR5bwnjYx
If the Islamic Republic gets a 60-day ceasefire extension based on vague promises of future talks, that is not diplomacy. It gives Iran time to recover, and in the process, the Islamic Republic wins while America gives up the leverage it has right now.
60 days is enough for the IRGC to rebuild smuggling routes, move proxy fighters, and steady its collapsing currency with expected sanctions relief money.
By August, the military pressure that pushed Iran to negotiate will likely fade. Public attention moves on, pressure weakens, and the Islamic Republic comes out stronger, with more money and rearmed allies.
This is not de-escalation. It gives the mullahs breathing room when they were running out of it. The regime is already struggling under heavy economic pressure, shrinking oil revenue and costly regional operations it cannot sustain forever, esp. with naval disruptions and tighter sanctions squeezing trade and supply lines.
[Note: Our CMS deleted most of this post this morning because it didn't like Truth Social tweets being embedded here. Fortunately, Ed was able to rescue everything that had disappeared from our database. This is now identical to the original post except that two Truth Social tweets were removed and replaced with the same info posted on X.]
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