The media may have just learned a lesson about blockades ... and so may have the Iranians.
Yesterday, after US Central Command (CENTCOM) declared the blockade on Iran's ports complete, media outlets took notice of a tanker called the Rich Starry. It had previously done business with Iran, although in this case it ostensibly loaded methanol from the UAE, and operated under sanctions targeting the regime in Tehran. When the Rich Starry passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday and into the Gulf of Oman, media outlets questioned CENTCOM's claim and reported that Iran and its partners would defy the blockade.
This morning, however, Reuters reports that the Rich Starry almost immediately reversed course and fled back to Qeshm Island:
The U.S.-sanctioned tanker Rich Starry made its way back to the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after exiting the Gulf the day before, shipping data showed, failing to break through a U.S. blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports.
As Reuters notes further in the same article, CENTCOM got it correct. The blockade is real, and it's spectacular thus far:
The blockade has created even further uncertainty for shippers, oil companies and war risk insurers. Traffic remains at only a fraction of the 130-plus daily crossings before the U.S. and Israel's war on Iran began on February 28, industry sources said on Tuesday.
There have been no Iranian tankers carrying crude for export and passing through the strait since the U.S. blockade began, according to Kpler and LSEG data.
Just where did the Rich Starry load its current cargo? Supposedly it carries 250,000 barrels of methanol. However, the Wall Street Journal reports that the ship had spoofed its transponder for almost two weeks in an attempt to hide some sort of transaction with the Iranians:
The ship left the strait on Tuesday before making a U-turn in the Gulf of Oman, where the U.S. is operating to enforce its blockade of ships using Iranian ports. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, the vessel was spoofing its automatic identification system—or sending false tracking information—between April 3 and April 14, when it left the strait, giving it the opportunity to covertly load Iranian cargo during that period. When it transited on Tuesday, the ship listed its point of origin as the coast of the United Arab Emirates.
The ship’s movements are indicative of a cat-and-mouse game under way between Iran’s shadow fleet of tankers and U.S. forces trying to enforce the blockade. The U.S. military said no ships made it past the blockade, which went into effect on Monday, but that in the first 24 hours it had turned back six vessels that it said were subject to the closure.
This doesn't look like a "cat and mouse" game. It looks more like a test to see just how serious CENTCOM is about enforcing the blockade. The crew of the Rich Starry must have gotten an answer when the ship cleared the strait, which is where the blockade actually gets imposed. Ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman, but ... they won't go any farther than that without getting boarded if they come from Iranian ports. And ships heading to Iran won't make it to the strait at all.
The Rich Starry's flight taught a lesson to Tehran, too, and they don't like it one bit. A 'top general' in Iran's regime threatened to end the ceasefire if Donald Trump doesn't lift the blockade:
Iran’s top military commander warned the U.S. against continued enforcement of its naval blockade against Iranian commercial ships and oil tankers, saying the “unlawful” action would be considered a violation of the cease-fire.
“If the U.S. wants to continue its illegal maritime blockade and create insecurity for Iran’s ships and oil tankers, it will be the prelude to a cease-fire violation,” Ali Abdollahi said, according to Iranian state media. “Iran’s armed forces will not allow exports and imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea.”
At the same time, however, Iran rejected a UN proposal that would allow free passage through the strait for all countries:
Iran said it had rejected a proposal adopted by the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization that called for a safe maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz to evacuate some 20,000 sailors and roughly 2,000 ships stuck in the Persian Gulf.
Iran’s deputy permanent representative of the ports and maritime organization to the IMO said that the proposal was “legally groundless and politically motivated” because it aims to hold the Islamic Republic responsible for the current situation in the vital waterway, according to the country’s state broadcaster Press TV. Tehran has “exercised its inherent right of self-defense” against the U.S.-Israeli attacks and any legal assessment of the maritime consequences that doesn’t take this into account, is “incomplete and legally flawed,” Pouria Kolivand added.
The desperation is clear. The blockade creates two big and acute problems for the regime remnants in Tehran. First, their revenue has been effectively cut off, to the tune of around $450 million a day from oil sales. Second, their system architecture does not have room for continued production without constant exports. Iran has some storage capacity, but not nearly enough to keep oil production going for long in a blockade. Iran had hoped that closing the strait would force Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu to break before these two problems became catastrophic for the regime, but the economic impact of Iran's attempts to shut down the Strait has not been nearly as bad as they imagined. And the US Navy's intervention has at least started getting some of the backed-up traffic out of the Persian Gulf, as over 20 ships have exited through the Strait of Hormuz in the first 24 hours of the blockade.
As for escalation, Trump knows how to play that game too. The Washington Post reports that Trump has ordered thousands more US troops to deploy to the Middle East in the next few days, raising the stakes over Iran's strategic island assets in the Persian Gulf:
The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, as the Trump administration attempts to pressure Iran into a deal that could end the weeks-long conflict there while considering the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if a fragile ceasefire does not hold, U.S. officials said.
The forces moving into the region include about 6,000 troops aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and several warships escorting it, said current and former officials, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military movements. About 4,200 others with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Corps task force, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, are expected to arrive near the end of the month.
The infusion of firepower appears likely to coalesce with warships already in the Middle East just as the two-week ceasefire is set to expire April 22. The troops will join the estimated 50,000 personnel that the Pentagon has said are involved in operations countering Iran.
Trump has both options and time. The Iranians are running out of both. The flight of the Rich Starry should remind the IRGC's lunatics of that reality.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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