Did the Graham Platner implosion do more than stop the socialist momentum in one state?
It's too soon to say, but it sure looks like the establishment Democrats caught a big break not just in Maine, but in Michigan as well, according to a new poll in the Michigan Senate race.
As I wrote yesterday, Democrats have developed a candidate quality problem that presents a serious problem, that could cost them seats in winnable elections. And the rapid lurch to the left is the key problem they face.
The Mamdani Democrats have been on a roll, getting all the media attention that had made them seemingly unstoppable. Platner, you recall, easily brushed aside a popular sitting governor because he appeared to be a fresh, new, and exciting candidate. But that's another way of saying "unvetted" and unconventional, and in his case also "extreme."
Echelon Insights: Net Favorability Ratings
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 14, 2026
🟢 Capitalism: +20
🟢 MAHA: +9
🟤 Free Palestine movement: -14
🟤 DSA: -21
🟤 MAGA: -25
🟤 Socialism: -29
🟤 Communism: -73https://t.co/GtGphxr02l pic.twitter.com/iUMiPRucZz
The fall of Platner seems to have slowed the momentum of candidates running in the same lane, including the seemingly unstoppable Abdul El-Sayed, who has been giving heartburn to the Organized Crime Democrats. They were so desperate to take him out that they convinced Mallory McMorrow to drop out to give Haley Stevens, a sitting Congresswoman who was polling better than she, a clearer path to victory over El-Sayed.
It seems to have worked.
Stevens' strengths in the poll are with Black voters (67% to El-Sayed's 21%), non-college-educated voters (56% to El-Sayed's 34%), voters over age 55, Metro Detroit voters and traditional Democrats. https://t.co/peFJyO4UZc
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) July 14, 2026
According to a new poll of the Michigan Senate race, Stevens has taken a measurable lead, if not an insurmountable one.
U.S. Senate Democratic hopeful Haley Stevens holds a nearly 7-percentage-point lead over rival Abdul El-Sayed in a new statewide poll of Democratic primary voters, with about 10% of respondents saying they remain undecided three weeks out from the Aug. 4 election.
Stevens received 48% of support compared with 41% for El-Sayed, according to the Detroit News/WDIV-TV (Channel 4) poll of 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters conducted last week after their first one-on-one televised debate.
About 0.2% of voters surveyed volunteered that they chose state Sen. Mallory McMorrow of Royal Oak, who dropped out of the race on July 5.
The Stevens-El-Sayed contest tightens to a dead heat when considering primary voters who say they're definitely committed to voting for one candidate or the other, with 34.1% identifying as "definite" Stevens supporters and 33.7% as "definite" El-Sayed supporters.
Stevens leads in the topline numbers of the survey because of the 14% of poll respondents who will "probably" vote for her, compared with about 8% who said they will "probably" side with El-Sayed, which pollster Richard Czuba said means that neither candidate has "sealed the deal" at this point.
El-Sayed had until now led in most polls, but the withdrawal of McMorrow, the rapidly changing landscape post-Platner, and the fallout that followed seem to have dramatically altered the landscape. While voters probably haven't directly responded to and connected their changing views to the Platner controversies, it's hard for analysts not to see a connection.
El-Sayed was riding a national wave of momentum that socialists have acquired from the perceived success of the so-called "Mamdani wave," and at least I believe that the Platner collapse has injected doubt into the prevailing belief that radical left-wing candidates are "winners."
El-Sayed benefited from his connection to a winning movement and is not losing momentum as that movement does.
NEW POLL: See our latest July 2026 Voter Omnibus here! We asked voters all about socialism, the SAVE Act, and more.
— Echelon Insights (@EchelonInsights) July 14, 2026
LINK:https://t.co/vtNz7gRded
Up until now, the socialists seemed to have had a Teflon coating. Platner survived scandal after scandal, and while El-Sayed faced questions far smaller than Platner's, there are certainly plenty of chinks in his armor, and he is no longer able to simply deflect from them.
Reporter: Do you stand by your support for defunding the police?
— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) July 3, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed: In my time leading Wayne County’s Health, Human, and Veteran services.. pic.twitter.com/45gqgsm1YA
Most glaring of all is that the working class, which the DSA candidates say they represent, just hate them. While these voters are not the most vocal, they form the backbone of any winning coalition, and they have been moving Republican-ward in recent elections to the detriment of Democrats.
El-Sayed does horribly with them, as well as black voters.
Black Democrats consistently choose moderates while white, college educated Democrats are starting to consistently choose leftists. And the decline of working class white voters supporting Democrats has made the remaining white left more radical. Democrats can’t get elected to…
— Darvio Morrow (@DTheKingpin) July 14, 2026
Black Democrats consistently choose moderates while white, college educated Democrats are starting to consistently choose leftists. And the decline of working class white voters supporting Democrats has made the remaining white left more radical. Democrats can’t get elected to dog catcher without Black voters, but the activist class is lining up behind radicals. The Democratic Party has a decision to make and I believe that it’s as consequential for that party as the (correct) decision in the 1960s to reverse their historic opposition to civil rights was.
Their coalition is not going to be able to remain the same. You can’t keep Black moderates, Jews and the remnant of working class whites remaining while simultaneously catering to far left radicals. The truth is The Democratic Party would’ve collapsed already if the Republicans weren’t stupid enough to keep alienating Black voters. The Democrats have a serious decision to make, and whatever decision they make will impact the future of that party for a generation.
Still, El-Sayed voters—college-educated whites and political activists—are almost assured to vote. Stevens and her Democratic establishment allies will have to turn out voters who may not be the usual primary election voters.
Stevens' strengths in the poll are with Black voters (67% to El-Sayed's 21%), non- college-educated voters (56% to El-Sayed's 34%), voters over age 55, Metro Detroit voters and traditional Democrats.
El-Sayed is getting the most support from White voters (51% to Stevens' 39%), college-educated voters (48% to Stevens' 41%), outstate voters, those under age 55 and likely primary voters who identify as Democratic Socialists.
Union households remain a competitive group, with El-Sayed pulling about 44% of support from union members and Stevens 39%. Stevens has largely dominated the race with overall union support, though El-Sayed won the backing of the powerful United Auto Workers.
"There's union votes out there to be had by these campaigns," Czuba said.
Stevens of Birmingham has gained support since the last survey in northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, while El-Sayed of Ann Arbor appears to be gaining on her in Oakland County, which Czuba said makes sense because it'sdominated by White, college-educated voters.
"That’s where the El-Sayed camp knows what they’re going after. Whereas the Stevens camp is dominating in non-college voters, Black voters and older voters," Czuba said. "This race is a Jenga game for both of these campaigns: If one piece doesn't pan out, the whole house comes down on them."
El-Sayed, for instance, is disproportionately relying on younger voters, especially those under 55 who are White and have a college education, and Czuba questioned whether there's enough voters in that category to overtake Michigan's older voter population.
The key to DSA candidates' success has been a well-cultivated loyalty of college-educated, downwardly mobile voters who identify as victims themselves and believe they are in solidarity with other victims. They may not be the largest segment of voters, but they are highly reliable voters,
But people who are actually struggling and working class don't identify with that group at all, but they also are less reliable voters.
In the Senate primary, Michigan Democrats have a choice between a candidate who wants to abolish prisons and campaigns with Hasan Piker and whatever Haley Stevens is doing. pic.twitter.com/UqZeXy2BoA
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 13, 2026
Stevens is not an electrifying candidate, so machine politics will play a large role in any chance she has of winning. Being the preferred candidate by a small margin is not enough to win; you have to be the preferred candidate of those who actually vote.
I still think about that time Haley Stevens wore pink latex gloves on the House floor to channel her inner dancing TikTok COVID nurse and had an insane meltdown, prompting the Sergeant at Arms to take her out. pic.twitter.com/AtxQuRPFvb
— Bad Hombre (@Badhombre) July 15, 2026
Can Stevens count on those voters as El Sayed can his? The race is close enough that either candidate could win. But the momentum is no longer on El-Sayed's side.
Editor’s Note: New York City is now facing the consequences of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s socialist takeover.
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