The world right now is in a bit of a precarious energy pinch. There is lots of what we need available. Getting it delivered is currently the biggest problem.
If oil isn't moving at its usual volume through the Strait of Hormuz, it has to be rerouted in a different direction, and it just so happens that every other default transit 'chokepoint' is having issues at the same time.
...But 16.7 million barrels a day don't vanish off the map…They get rerouted, and rerouting oil means shoving it through some other narrow place that was already busy. Brent was around $91.62 on Wednesday and WTI at $85.56, and a fair slice of that is just the cost of the detour.
So the more useful question right now isn't what's happening in Hormuz. It's what's happening everywhere else. There are five other chokepoints that matter, and every one of them is currently doing something. They're below in rough order of how likely they are to ruin somebody's quarter, starting with the one that already is.
The Saudis' 180 to using their pipeline worked splendidly until the Houthis started targeting tankers exiting the Bab al-Mandeb.
...They don't hold the Yemeni coastline at the strait itself…they hold ground roughly 100 kilometers away, which has turned out to be plenty, and they've since claimed strikes on Saudi tankers and on Aramco facilities at Jizan and Yanbu. Traffic responded predictably. Traceable transits fell to 200 in the week of Aug. 3, the lowest weekly count in a year, and a growing share of what still moves has switched off its transponders and gone dark.
The workaround for that problem is long and even more expensive.
...Going around means the Cape of Good Hope, which adds about 3,500 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days. Reuters costed one Saudi cargo sent the long way at roughly $1.6 million in extra fuel plus another $1 million in canal fees. Riyadh can also push barrels north through Suez and the Sumed pipeline, but as the EIA puts it, those routes “take longer, are more expensive, and are more limited in capacity.” Which is the polite way of saying there isn't a good answer.
Ukrainian drones have bottled up the end of the Bosporus at Novorossiysk [Beege: clarified that], and the Panama Canal, never really an international crude passage to begin with, is once again facing a rain-parched cargo ship draft reduction scenario. There are a couple of other fascinating oil transit chokepoints in the article that never make our radar, like the uber-narrow Phillips Channel off Singapore in the Strait of Malacca (I'd highly recommend a read of the entire thing if you get a chance), which have all fallen off in volume.
So, obviously, homegrown or friendly neighboring oil production would be the optimum scenario for better surviving a transportation-challenged environment. It might cost you more to fill up, but at least you know you have it, right?
Here in the United States, we're in far better shape than most, but there are still going to be significant humps to get over. Maintenance on Canadian oil sands operations is going to take a good portion offline, just as diesel prices are hitting records and Alberta's inventories are low. That's without factoring in the tariff tiff.
US refiners are facing a looming supply drop from their biggest foreign crude supplier at a time when they need the oil the most.
Canada supplies the US with more than 4 million barrels a day of crude, most produced in the oil-rich heartland of northern Alberta and then sent south to refineries in the US. Those refineries are processing the most crude oil in eight years, US government data show, as they look to take advantage of diesel margins that hit a record this week.
But their main international supply source is set to be constrained in the coming months. Planned maintenance in the Canadian oil sands is set to take about 300,000 barrels a day of production offline next month, according to Rystad Energy. The shortfall will be difficult to make up as Alberta’s stockpiles are also at their lowest in more than a year.
Particularly vulnerable to a Canadian supply squeeze are refineries in the US Midwest, which rely on the country’s oil for about 70% of their supply. US crude imports from its northern neighbor last week fell the most since May, according to Energy Information Administration data.
In Europe, where the exact opposite of 'drill, baby, drill' has had a devastating effect on economies rich in natural resources, yet so wedded to the climate cult they've spurned utilizing what they have at their fingertips. Like that of the United Kingdom.
- UK CPI inflation increased from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July, while services inflation eased from 3.6% to 3.4% and core CPI remained at 2.6%.
- Gas and electricity were major drivers of the increase after Ofgem’s July price-cap adjustment, with the typical dual-fuel bill rising by £221 to £1,862.
- Higher energy prices and elevated borrowing costs are complicating the outlook for both the government and the Bank of England, which held the Bank Rate at 3.75% in July.
The answer is always another solar panel or wind turbine, and the foot they've been shooting into is looking like Swiss cheese.
The European Union is in much the same fix as Britain, having willfully cut their noses off to spite their own faces, all the while hypocritically relying on non-EU members to drill, pump, and refine the liquid natural gas and oil product shortfalls for them that their reliance on unreliable renewables cannot possibly hope to cover.
Sometimes, they outfox themselves, as with their infamous Nordstream deal with the Russian devil.
And then, sometimes it turns out that the slightest disruption in one of the non-EU neighbors in a time of unsettled world supply becomes a cause for great concern. Normally, if non-EU member and major oil producer Norway's output slipped by a few percentage points, the difference could be made up elsewhere.
That's not the case this summer. The virtue-signaling climate cultists of the EU have been put in a bind by the very thing that would have saved them had they all been pumping and refining as they used to.
But just as with Russian gas, in their arrogance, they've become complacent and simply expect Norwegian oil to be there for them, with no allowance made for a 'what if it's not?'
...Crude production therefore fell by 47,000 barrels per day, or 2.6%, month over month. Total liquids output declined by 45,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 2.2%.
In a well-supplied market, a monthly Norwegian decline of this size could be absorbed relatively easily. Its significance increases when the global market is already relying on inventories, emergency reserves and alternative export routes to compensate for disrupted Middle Eastern supply.
The problem is not that Norway lost enough barrels to move the market on its own. It is that the loss comes from the part of the supply system the market still expects to work.
Norwegian crude is produced close to Europe’s refining system, supported by established infrastructure and largely insulated from the maritime constraints affecting Middle Eastern exports. Its value to the current market is therefore greater than Norway’s share of global supply alone would suggest.
For themselves, unlike the pathetically, suicidally inclined Labour Party in Britain, the Norwegians are going on the energy offensive. They can read the writing on the wall, and, while they pay lip service to the noble goals espoused by the EU's green grift addicted brahmins, the Norwegians are going to both protect their sovereign wealth fund - built on black gold - and tell the EU to suck a stone if they have a problem with it.
Norway Vows to Keep Drilling for Oil and Gas in the Arctic
Norway plans to continue exploring for oil and gas in its Arctic waters in the Barents Sea regardless of whether the European Union supports or lifts a moratorium on Arctic drilling, Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland told Reuters.
Norway, not an EU member but a close ally and the single biggest gas supplier to Europe, pursues increasing its oil and gas supply to meet demand in Europe, which has had to contend with the bans on Russian oil and gas imports amid two energy crises in four years.
The EU, for its part, currently has a moratorium on drilling for oil and gas in the Arctic.
The EU’s moratorium on Arctic drilling was enacted in 2021 due to the bloc’s climate commitments and environmental concerns. The ban does not allow drilling in Norway’s northern parts of the Barents Sea, which is estimated to contain most of the remaining Norwegian oil and gas resources.
The Norwegian questions to the EU hierarchy at large are more about stating the obvious than asking for permission.
...With energy security currently top of every government’s agenda, “European countries must make their decisions,” Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told the Financial Times in remarks published on Friday.
“Is it safer to buy it from the Gulf? From Qatar? Is it safer to buy it from the US?” the official added.
💥Norway will continue developing its oil and gas resources in the Barents Sea regardless of the EU's support for a moratorium on Arctic hydrocarbon supplies, and no longer sees itself as Europe's "green battery", Energy Minister Terje Aasland told Reuters. Energy security…
— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) August 24, 2026
...Energy security axiomatically trumps energy transition.
That's only true in places where 'energy security' is a thing more important than 'security bankies' for green weenies.
We're a country entirely run on not upsetting hysterical menopausal journalists. Every decision is made so Beth Rigby and Laura Kuensburg don't wet themselves.
— Shrodingers Borderline Normal (@JeremyCordite) August 17, 2026
And while the Brussels Brahmins might make do with a disgusted sniff and much harumphing they feel is required to signal disapproval of the Norwegians boring holes they don't approve of, you can bet they're secretly wiping their delicate brows of a few glistening sweat beads so they can once again put off the decision themselves.
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