Europe's in a Heatwave at the Moment

AP Photo, File

Europe and the United Kingdom have spent the past few days warming up to some pretty unbearable temperatures by anyone's measure, even a retiree who might have moved to Phoenix from Wisconsin to get out of the snow.

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It's also got a good touch of humidity. This helps make it well-nigh deadly, particularly as Europeans are stubbornly anti-air-conditioning, even now. Although considering the continent's challenges with providing electrical power on the best day, that might be a modern convenience, a 20th-century bridge too far for them to even contemplate.

There is historical context for these temperatures, even as hyperbolic "boiling earth" types ignore them.

Of course, it's been even hotter before, and brutally so, and it makes for a fascinating history lesson.

I vividly remember the news reports from Paris in 2003. Elderly people in apartments who had no fans and were unable to open apartment windows to catch even the slightest breath of air were especially vulnerable, and Parisian authorities were begging relatives to check on their elderly and bring them home with them if they possibly could.

By the time the week of heat was over, almost 15,000 people in France, with nearly 5,000 of those in Paris alone, had succumbed to the heat.

Gobsmacking numbers of heat-related deaths in the 'modern' world.

...The hospitals in France, especially in the Paris area, were recently confronted with the most deadly heat wave so far observed. Indeed, from 1 to 14 August 2003 the maximal and minimal temperatures reached unprecedented highs. It is interesting to note that the high temperatures were not accompanied with high relative humidity, as is usually reported [1]. Within a few days of the onset of the heat spell, the Institut National de la Santé Publique et de la Recherche Médicale reported a sharp increase in the number of heat-related deaths [8]. On 4 August, 300 excess deaths were observed. Excess deaths progressively increased until 12 August, reaching 2000 per day, and then rapidly disappeared in a few days. The cumulative excess deaths reached 14,800 over the entire month of August, which corresponded to a 60% increase of expected mortality in France 

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At least modern medicine prevents the worst of the ills that accompany prolonged heat and drought, even though it cannot prevent a body from overheating. In the 1473, 1540, and 1719 heat and drought events, the death tolls were in the hundreds of thousands across Europe.

...The prolonged heat and drought led to a widespread epidemic called 'Big Death'. For England the records mention that hot agues, dysentery and plague were afflicting the English, “Hot agues” is a historical term used for acute, feverish illnesses. Dysentery is another cause for increased mortality levels in and after drought summers. It particularly affected young children after weaning. The various forms of transmission, via contaminated water and food or via flies, were all enhanced during dry and warm summers, when water levels were low- Most of the additional deaths would fall to late summer and autumn, since the impact of summer heat on mortality was delayed by 1–2 months.[34] Following the extreme heat and drought of the summer of 1719, an epidemic of dysentery in France claimed 450,000 lives, equivalent to 2% of the population at the time. Assuming the same mortality rate in 1540 for an estimated population of 40 Million in Central Europe[35] the 'Big Death' may have claimed about 800,000 lives.[32]

There were strange side effects to the brutal weather.

I can't imagine a hangover in that kind of heat. Dear Lord - yech.

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1540 is a benchmark event, and besides the cool factoids, this 2022 Politico article about it in light of what's occurring in Europe this week is ringing true.

...Anna was one of the few winners of the nearly year-long megadrought that gripped western and central Europe that year, from France to Poland. For most, it was a grueling year. Temperatures spiked over 40 degrees Celsius; forests and towns burned to cinders; rivers ran dry; cattle died in their droves; and disease spread around stagnant waterways.

Unfortunately for us, 1540 is far from being an abstract historical curio. Only last week, Andrea Toreti, a senior scientist at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, warned that 2022 now risked being the driest year in the past 500. That now sets us face-to-face with 1540 as the statistical low-water mark that we really don't want to supplant in the record books. The signs are that it could be even harder for us to survive a rerun of 1540 than it was for the peasants of the 16th century. While they faced dysentery and sky-high bread prices, the rain deficit and collapse in water levels that they endured would risk upending our civilizational model. They simply didn't need the pharaonic amounts of water that we do for high-yield crops and cooling power plants.

Let's take that water issue.

Now, it's not that water levels are down, as they were just a few years ago, but that the water is so warm, which is causing trouble for the French at the moment. There's already been a power outage for nearly 70K people when an overheated transformer blew. But the cooling water for their nuclear plants is awfully warm, and that is restricting power production precisely when they need to step it up.

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A record-breaking European heat wave has caused a major power outage in France, as several countries issue red alerts across large swaths of their territory.

A heat-related incident left around 68,000 homes without electricity in western France, according to the prefecture in the coastal department of Finistere.

The outage, which started on Tuesday evening and was related to a transformer in the town of Ergué-Gabéric, was not expected to be fully restored until the end of Wednesday at the earliest.

“Priority is being given to restoring power to healthcare facilities and critical sites. Nursing homes where power has not yet been restored to the grid will be provided with generators,” the operator said in a statement.

Data from French utility EDF, meanwhile, showed that the country’s nuclear output nationwide was reduced by 4.1 gigawatts on Wednesday as high temperatures reduced access to cooling water, according to Reuters. CNBC has contacted EDF and is awaiting a response.

The French nuclear plant output being dialed back because river temperatures are too high to safely cool the reactor is now impacting renewable-crazy Great Britain. 

It's 34°C/94°F in London at the moment, the Met Office has issued a rare 'red weather warning' for extreme heat over the next few days...

A rare red weather warning has come into effect for London as a potentially record-breaking June heatwave intensifies.

The Met Office alert, which began at 9am on Wednesday and has been extended to 11 pm on Friday, warns of a risk to life from the exceptionally hot weather.

Temperatures in the capital reached 35.1C at 3pm, and are forecast to rise to 37C later on Wednesday after reaching a high of 33.9C in Kew Gardens on Tuesday.

The Met Office says the record UK high for June - 35.6C - could be broken with conditions potentially getting even hotter later in the week.

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...and now, because of the situation curtailing French power generation, the British are in a self-induced power pickle of their own again.

You see, when the British don't have enough of their own power, they buy it from the French.

The French have cut their power sales to the British by 48% thanks to the heat situation.

Oh, dear.

 British solar panel output is melting down thanks to the heat, and the wind has dropped off to nearly nothing.

Time to fire up the gas they all hate and hope they have enough to see them through.

I do not believe that's it's a coincidence that, as they've continued to march so bravely off the renewable cliff and continued disposal of their dispatchable and reliable power generation sources, they now, for the first time ever, have to fire up those reviled natural gas generators for power in the summer. There is guaranteed to be a code red the second renewables come under any sort of strain, when that is the predominant base of what you rely on for your power.

Gas power stations across the UK have been ordered to fire up production as soaring temperatures trigger a slump in solar energy.

The National Energy System Operator (Neso) issued a power supply warning overnight as the country braces for temperatures near 40C on Wednesday and Thursday.

It is the first time the grid operator has been forced to issue such an alert during the summer months.

Gas plants have been urged to ramp up output to deal with high levels of demand expected on Wednesday night as homes and offices turn up the air conditioning to endure the heatwave.

The notice comes as soaring temperatures make Britain’s solar farms less efficient, putting further strain on the power grid. Solar panel efficiency typically drops by 0.3pc to 0.5pc for every degree that a panel’s temperature rises above 25C.

...Data from the UK’s grid network showed gas generation jumped from around eight gigawatts at 12pm on Tuesday, to more than 17 gigawatts overnight.

More than half of Britain’s power needs were being supplied by gas on Wednesday morning, with wind generating around 12pc and solar less than 10pc.

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And that 'renewables are cheaper, more affordable' lie they keep repeating is going out the window again.

...Such warnings are usually issued during winter when demand for energy is at its highest. However, households and businesses are expected to ramp up power usage for air conditioning and other means of keeping cool, after the Met Office issued a red weather warning.

Britain’s energy shortage has been compounded by relatively low wind generation across the country and continental Europe.

Meanwhile, imports of French energy have fallen by 48pc since Sunday. France has been forced to switch off a nuclear power station as high river temperatures mean the water is too warm to safely cool reactors.

In a worrying sign for consumers, energy market intelligence firm Montel said the decline in renewable efficiency had pushed up wholesale power prices.

Prices climbed to £248.39 per megawatt hour at the evening peak on Tuesday, an increase of more than 75pc compared with the same time a week earlier.

Guess who gets to pay for all that climate cult madness - not Ed Miliband or Greta Thunberg.

Mr. and Mrs. Smythe, the pensioners.

Sure, renewables generate so much electricity - probably, in some cases, if you look strictly at output, it might be the bulk of the megawatts produced in any given day.

That's great.

But are they there not just when they can make them, but WHEN THE COUNTRY NEEDS THEM?

That answer is a resounding 'no.'

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