Two days ago I pointed out that President Trump's recently announced deal to buy diesel fuel from Russia seemed like a great deal for Russia and a terrible one for Ukraine. The deal gives Putin another financial lifeline at a time when he desperately needs it, though the impact on global diesel prices (and thus U.S. prices) will probably be small.

Along with that announcement came another demand that Ukraine stop attacking Russian oil refineries, something that President Trump has demanded before.

Senior Ukrainian and European officials had traveled to the club, Shell Bay, for talks with Mr. Trump’s peace envoys, Mr. Witkoff and Jared Kushner. They had planned to discuss updated proposals to end the war in Ukraine ahead of another trip to Russia by Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner.

But Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner soon made an announcement that stunned the visitors and much of the world when the news became public shortly thereafter. The United States, the Americans said, would suspend sanctions on Russian diesel fuel. The Americans added a firm request from Mr. Trump: that Ukraine stop attacking Russian oil refineries.

One of the Ukrainians asked what they would get in return.

The Americans responded that the United States was doing a lot for Ukraine already, according to three people familiar with the meeting, and should not have to make a trade for Ukraine to stop its refinery attacks. The Americans then mentioned U.S. intelligence assistance, considered vital to the Ukrainian war effort.

If you've been following this at all, you probably know that strikes on Russian refineries have been one of several changes this year that have been significant game changers in the war. Using homemade drones and cruise missiles, Ukraine has managed to take out somewhere between 30 percent and 50 percent of all of Russia's refining capacity for gasoline and diesel. 

That has turned a country that formerly exported huge amounts of both products into one that has banned exports and started importing fuel from neighbors. So not only was Russia not making money off the sales, it was also losing money importing fuel from India, Kazakhstan and elsewhere.

Perhaps even more importantly, the fuel shortages were bringing the war home to Russia for the first time. Long gas lines became common everywhere, including in Moscow. Suddenly, Putin couldn't pretend that all was going well in the war.

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But today it appears that the Pentagon has effectively cut off Ukrainian access to a military version of Starlink called Starshield. Not all access has been removed, but any use for weapons traveling more than 100 kph, which means the kind of drones used to attack Russian refineries and other targets just stopped working in many cases.

For years, Ukraine’s armed forces have relied on SpaceX’s Starlink, which provides internet connectivity from satellites in lower earth orbit, and more recently its military-grade sister service, Starshield. Ukraine said on Tuesday that some military operations had been jeopardized, and specifically cited restrictions on Starshield.

“Our armed forces did not receive a warning about these restrictions, and this led to the failure of a number of missions,” Serhiy Beskrestnov, who advises President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on weapons technologies, wrote on social media.

Mr. Beskrestnov said that the restrictions, which applied to devices traveling over 100 miles per hour and using Starshield, was related to “the current political situation.”

This is a major blow not only to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets but to their defensive efforts as well. Ukraine is currently using interceptor drones to take down Russia's jet-powered Shaheed drones.

These interceptors travel at high speed and are now apparently grounded, leaving Ukraine open to more Russian attacks.

The Starshield deployment in Ukraine operates under an explicit contractual agreement managed and funded by the U.S. Department of Defense. Following recurring friction over commercial terms and operational boundaries during earlier phases of the conflict, the Pentagon established formal defense contracts with SpaceX to supply dedicated Starshield terminals and guaranteed bandwidth to Ukrainian forces. These government-backed agreements covered access for approximately 3,000 hardened military terminals to insulate Ukrainian frontline communications from private corporate intervention...

Crucially, the velocity cap directly impairs Ukraine’s recently deployed drone interceptors, which require high sprint velocities to intercept incoming Russian jet-powered Shahed strike drones. By severing telemetry links at speeds above 100 km/h, the restriction effectively neutralizes a cost-effective airborne defense layer tasked with protecting urban centers and energy substations from low-altitude cruise attacks.

This move really helps Putin, whose plan all along was to take advantage of Ukraine's lack of interceptors to bomb them into submission this winter. Now with the interceptors they do have cut off from Starshield, the country will be even more vulnerable.

We don't know exactly why this happened but it sure looks like President Trump is twisting arms in order to stop effective Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. If so, then the U.S. is now directly helping Putin in two ways. I'm not sure why we would do that for a deal on diesel imports that probably won't make enough of a difference to impact prices here at home.

Update: Some connectivity has been restored and Elon Musk denies any involvement.

So that settles it. This was Trump's doing. Unfortunately, 160 kph is still not fast enough for Ukraine's Sting Interceptor drones which travel up to 315 kph. These are defensive weapons used to stop jet-powered drones (the jets are made in China) aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure.

What are we doing here? This is putting a bunch of actual civilians in danger to save Putin's economy. Putin is a determined enemy of the United States and has been for a long time. Why would we want to help him out?