If you've been following this story all year then you already know that one of the most dramatic inflection points in the war between Russia and Ukraine happened when Elon Musk agreed to cut off Russia's access to Starlink. Here's what I wrote about it at the time.
One of the first things Russia targeted in the war was Ukraine's communications infrastructure. That should have left Ukraine's military relying on walkie-talkies and cell phones but it didn't thanks to the introduction of Starlink terminals into the conflict. Over time, Starlink became the backbone of Ukraine's defense strategy.
Meanwhile, Russia decided it wanted to get in on the action and by 2024 it was also using Starlink terminals which it had bought and activated abroad and then transferred to the battlefield. Eventually, Russia was putting the terminals on individual drones to make them able to transmit video in real time and better guide them toward targets.
Ukraine's defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, appealed directly to Elon Musk and asked him to turn off Russia's access to the satellites and at the beginning of February Musk did exactly that.
One Ukrainian drone operator estimated that Russia lost 50 percent of its offensive capability overnight. A Russian soldier caught on a call intercept said, "All we’ve got left now are radios, cables and pigeons.”
Ukraine then tricked hundreds of the desperate Russian soldiers on the front lines into revealing information about their Starlink panels. That information was then used to target those panels.
"When people started messaging us, we directed them to closed group chats," says Mykhailo Makaruk, spokesman for InformNapalm. "We wanted to show that it was top secret."
Makaruk says his group successfully identified 2,425 Starlink terminals, from the Crimean peninsula in the south to the city of Gomel in eastern Belarus.
Believing they were on a fast track to having their terminals reconnected, some soldiers were even tricked into making online payments totalling $5,000.
Once the locations of the terminals close to the front lines had been established, many were targeted by Ukrainian artillery and drones.
All of that to say, it was a major turning point in the Russian offensive. Since then, Russia has been bogged down and even lost territory it had previously claimed. That's not entirely due to Starlink access but it certainly played a role in changing the momentum.
Recently, the NY Post has published two opinion pieces arguing that Elon Musk could end the war sooner by taking the next step and allowing the use of Starlink by Ukraine over Russian territory.
This year, Ukraine has successfully used Starlink-controlled mid-range drones to destroy dynamic targets like logistics trucks on occupied Ukrainian soil.
Kyiv now wants to do the same against the ballistic-missile launchers and related assets threatening its people.
SpaceX, however, restricts access to Starlink on Russian territory, where launchers are typically placed — despite Ukraine’s direct appeals.
Musk reportedly sees these potential Starlink-facilitated strikes as escalation, and is urging Ukraine instead to pursue a peace deal.
But that logic is backward.
A negotiated settlement will remain elusive so long as Putin insists on non-starter demands that outstrip his military leverage.
Putin has added small jet engines purchased from China to his Russian-made drones. Those drones are much faster and harder to stop. He has also been ramping up his ballistic missile production and Ukraine is running low on the Patriot missiles needed to shoot them down. This is Putin's strategy for creating another cold winter for Ukraine.
But if Ukraine could use Starlink-guided drones to take out the launchers for those drones and ballistic missiles, it would end Putin's advantage. And that might finally force him to the negotiating table. The NY Post has an editorial making this case today.
If President Donald Trump really wants a cease-fire in Ukraine, he’ll pressure Elon Musk to let Kyiv use his Starlink system over Russian territory...
Improved guidance over Russia for Ukrainian attack and reconnaissance drones would boost Kyiv’s ability to hit Vladimir Putin’s missile launchers and key infrastructure — and push the Russian strongman to the table faster than anything else.
The editorial goes on to argue that just the threat of these strikes might be enough to force a temporary cease-fire on energy strikes that will make things better for the civilians on both sides.
This winter, civilian casualties (on both sides) could likewise prove horrific, absent an energy cease-fire.
Yet Putin won’t budge unless he feels it best serves his interests.
So the argument is that Starlink, or the threat of its use over Russian territory, would actually help de-escalate the war and maybe force Putin to reconsider his course. Short of that, he seems set on continuing the long game which has already resulted in more than 200,000 Russian soldiers killed this year.
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