When China moved in to seize control of Hong Kong, it started with a new National Security Law. I wrote about it back in May of 2020:
You may recall that the months of protests in Hong Kong were prompted by an attempt to introduce a new law which might have made it possible for China to extradite people to the mainland for trial. That proposal was eventually withdrawn because of the protests. This time China is simply holding the vote in a place where protests won’t matter. And China is using the authoritarian’s favorite gimmick, claiming opposition to the Chinese Communist Party in Hong Kong isn’t home-grown but based on collusion with “external forces.”...
It almost doesn’t matter how limited the new law passed Friday is. Once China established this precedent, i.e. that it can simply pass laws for Hong Kong via its one-party legislature in the mainland, Xi Jinping can go back and do this again and again for any reason at any time. This would make the claim of two systems little more than a mirage.
Once the law was in place, China moved quickly. By July it was arresting pro-democracy students.
Police announced they had arrested four students for the crime of advocating Hong Kong independence. One of the four is only 16-years-old.
The four students arrested had connections to a group called Studentlocalism which was pro-independence. I say ‘was’ because Studentlocalism was shut down a few days before the new national security law took effect. The former leader of that group, Tony Chung, was one of the people arrested. Pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong said Chung was arrested for a post on Facebook about Chinese nationalism...
According to the Senior Superintendent of the National Security Department, it’s all perfectly legal now thanks to the new national security law. Under the law, “separatism” is a crime with a possible life sentence.
And a month after that, China raided Apple Daily, the last surviving pro-democracy publication in Hong Kong.
Images from inside @appledaily_hk's building. Yes, this is #HongKong. pic.twitter.com/lgPyOoiLhs
— William Yang (@WilliamYang120) August 10, 2020
Hong Kong went from being a relatively free place with a strong pro-democracy movement to just another region controlled by Beijing. In other words, a place where talking about independence from the Chinese government is illegal.
Six years later, it's starting to look like China is eager to repeat that process with Taiwan. China just passed a new "ethnic unity law" which it says will allow it to target people overseas for separatism.
China has a right to target people outside of its borders who contravene its new law on ethnic unity, a senior official said on Wednesday, adding that this was in line with international practice, and was legal and necessary...
The new law, which goes into effect on July 1, includes a clause saying people and groups beyond the borders of the People's Republic of China can be held legally accountable for undermining "ethnic unity and progress or inciting ethnic separatism".
That has sparked alarm in Chinese-claimed Taiwan in particular that it could give Beijing another legal basis to go after Taiwanese it views as separatists.
Naturally, people in Taiwan can see the implied threat. China has repeatedly warned Taiwan's current president that they considered him a separatist.
Adopted by China’s top legislature on March 12, the “Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law” aims to “forge a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation,” including by fostering a stronger sense of “belonging to the Chinese nation and identity as Chinese” among Taiwanese.
Article 63 of the law states that organizations and people outside China who engage in acts against China that “undermine ethnic unity and progress or promote ethnic separatism shall be held legally liable in accordance with the law.”...
Taiwanese academics who argue that Taiwan is not part of China, foreign media reporting on human rights in Xinjiang, or foreign politicians publicly supporting Taiwan’s participation in international organizations could all be unilaterally deemed illegal by Beijing, the official said on condition of anonymity.
Taiwan Alliance, a coalition of pro-Taiwan civic groups, expressed its “strong condemnation and deep concern” over the law, describing it as “a tool for transnational repression.”
Once China gets a legal foothold in Taiwan, it will use it to squeeze out any groups or parties that advocate for an independent Taiwan. Once these are eliminated by jailing or threats, the pro-China parties in Taiwan can take over. In fact, they can even hold elections knowing that no one is left to challenge them. It all has the look of a legal, democratic process when in reality it's a forced outcome generated under duress.
At the same time, the Chinese Coast Guard has been trying to assume control of commercial ships operating on the far side of Taiwan.
Earlier this month, China’s coast guard began issuing direct commands to foreign commercial vessels while patrolling the waters east of Taiwan’s main island. The five-day operation, which ended on June 10, has caused alarm among Taiwanese, American and other Western officials...
While Beijing has previously simulated blockades in large-scale drills, the latest efforts by China’s coast guard hint at what Taipei fears could be a perilous escalation—the direct boarding and inspection of foreign ships.
One observer compared it to the slow tightening of a boa constrictor.
“The objective is a slow-motion quarantine that gradually isolates Taiwan without ever firing a shot,” said Raymond Powell, director of the SeaLight project at Stanford University, which tracks Chinese maritime activities. “Each aggression looks too small to fight over, and that’s the design.”
Powell compared China’s naval strategy around Taiwan to that of a boa constrictor, moving slowly to overpower its rival, rather than striking dramatically as a viper might. “There’s no single strike major enough to react to, just a steady tightening where each squeeze is incremental enough to explain away, but the pressure grows ever tighter,” he said.
This is how China achieved complete control over Hong Kong and it seems to be replaying the same steps now toward Taiwan. As the world's primary source of advanced microchips, it would have a dramatic impact on global trade and the development of advanced technology if China succeeded.
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