The first round of Brazil’s presidential election is on Sunday. Two candidates are locked in a dead heat: Lula da Silva, incumbent president and founder of the center-left Workers’ Party, and Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro (2018-2022). Last year, Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of plotting a coup to remain in power after losing the 2022 election and sentenced to more than 27 years in prison.
The parallels between Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro are notable. They were elected in 2016 and 2018, respectively. Both are populist nationalists. Both are coarse, politically incorrect, and hostile to critics. Most remarkably, both lost re-election, after which supporters stormed the halls of Congress seeking to overturn the result. Though Trump, in contrast to Bolsonaro, avoided prison and returned to office, both command die-hard support and lead political movements that dominate the Right in their countries.
It is reasonable to ask why two countries as different as the U.S. and Brazil have followed such similar political tracks since the late 2010s. Why did the Trump model work in Brazil? Trump’s signature issues—illegal immigration and tariffs—were irrelevant there. To answer this question, we need to step back and consider populism in broad terms.
It is clear why Left populism occurs. Economic inequality arises; the rich capture the political establishment; then the poor and precariously situated vote in an outsider who soaks the rich. But why does Right populism occur? In part, because disorder also exists. Crime and illegal activities occur; drug gangs or insurgencies pop up; the political establishment fails to impose order; then the public votes in an outsider who promises to restore it.
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