The GOP Is Fighting to Hold the House. It Just Might Do It.

There are now fewer than 100 days until the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican Party, led by President Donald Trump, is seeking to do something quite unprecedented—hold on to its razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives. Only twice in modern times has the president’s party picked up House seats in a midterm election, in 1998 and 2002. When the sitting president is “underwater”—below 50 percent—in job approval polls, as Trump is now, the president’s party has always lost House seats. And in every midterm election since 1946, at least five House seats have flipped from one party to the other, and the GOP can only afford to lose a net two seats to keep its majority.

Amazingly, despite all this, the GOP still has a credible chance to keep control of the House in 2026.

A major reason for that is that House elections operate on a “boom-and-bust” cycle, and the GOP is already at a “bust” level, i.e., a low level. In 2018, the Democrats’ “blue wave” captured 41 seats for the Democrats, moving them up to 235 seats. In 2020, the GOP won back 14 seats. In 2022, they picked up another 9. In 2024, the Republicans lost two House seats, leaving it with a 220–215 majority.

Another reason is that the GOP was triumphant in the 2026 gerrymandering battles and has additionally benefited from the Supreme Court decision in Callais. The Republicans are very likely to pick up House seats in Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Texas, and other gains are possible in North Carolina and Ohio. Meanwhile, thanks to Democrat incompetence in Virginia, only California was redistricted to favor Democrats. As a result of the new lines, the Republicans lead in three of the four political forecasts for the House. According to many political observers, because of these line changes, the Democrats need to win the generic ballot by 5 percent just to have a chance to win the majority.