On the third day of the six-day-long state funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, July 6, 2026, Iran chose to attack three separate commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz in another violation of the signed memorandum of understanding (MoU). In response, the U.S. attacked over 80 targets in Iran within 24 hours, and, while at the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump stated that the ceasefire is now likely over, as more attacks were carried out the evening of July 8. If that is the case, what this means for future military action remains unclear, including the potential implementation of the highly risky plan to take and occupy Kharg Island; the island processes and exports the majority of Iran’s oil and was also a target in the recent American retaliation.
As part of the American response to Iran’s violation of the MoU, the U.S. has rescinded Iran’s sanctions waiver to sell its oil on the open market and has once again reiterated its stance that Iran will not have control of the strait nor will it have the ability to charge tolls or fees of any kind. Iran has continually demonstrated that it fully intends to charge tolls disguised as unsanctioned administrative fees for use of the Strait of Hormuz, having both established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to do so, which has already been sanctioned, and petitioned the United Nations to recognize its authority over the chokepoint.
With the ceasefire now likely ended, or on life support, this also raises questions about whether nuclear talks will continue, whether any trust can be established to finalize a peace deal, and what damage long-term military escalation will cause, especially to global energy trade. Regardless of whether an enforceable deal is reached, either through renewed diplomacy or through capitulation under military pressure, Iran has permanently altered the strategic and economic value of the Strait of Hormuz, as it will remain a persistent threat to shipping stability and regional safety.
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