Was Redistricting Enough To Save GOP House Majority?

In an ordinary midterm congressional election, the usual outcome is that the President’s party loses seats in the House of Representatives. If history repeats itself in November, the Democrats may well flip enough seats to overcome the razor thin Republican majority and take control of the House. But there is reason to believe that the GOP will defy history in the upcoming midterms because it won the 2025-2026 “redistricting war,” the struggle between red and blue states to gain an edge by engaging in mid-decade redrawing of their congressional districts. After that “long twilight struggle,” Republican states appear to have outperformed Democrat states and should net about ten new House seats.

Overall, eight states redrew their House maps in favor of Republicans, while only two states managed to redraw their maps in favor of Democrats. The Republicans began their redistricting effort better positioned to prevail because they controlled more state governments than did the Democrats. According to Ballotpedia, there are currently 23 states in which the GOP controls the governorship and both houses of the legislature compared to only 16 states in which the Democrats wield such control. Moreover, a number of Democrat states had already gerrymandered their congressional maps before the mid-decade spate of redistricting began last year leaving little room for additional redistricting. The following Republican states expanded their House maps:

Texas: The Lone Star State began the mid-decade “redistricting wars” in 2025 by redrawing a new congressional map that could net the Republicans as many as five additional seats. This was inevitably challenged by the Democrats in court but that effort collapsed on December 4, 2025, when the U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6-3 ruling allowing Texas to use its new map for the 2026 elections. This may well give the GOP control of 30 of the state’s 38 districts.

Florida: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis announced last January that he would call a special legislative session in April on congressional redistricting. His new map was approved, but it was inevitably challenged in court by the Democrats. The Florida Supreme Court rejected the challenges in a 6-1 vote. Florida’s previous congressional delegation has a 20-8 edge favoring the GOP. The new map could very well net the GOP as many as 4 additional seats.