A new poll suggests Republicans’ longshot hopes of taking the California governor’s mansion could end with a shutout in Tuesday’s primary.
Three candidates stand head and shoulders above the rest of the crowded field: Democratic former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra polls in first place at 28% support, Democratic billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer polls in second place at 22% support, and Trump-backed Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton is in third at 21% support, according to an Emerson College survey released Saturday. Since the top two vote-getters Tuesday will advance to the general election regardless of party, Republicans would be locked out of November’s ballot if these numbers hold.
The survey found the race’s other major Republican candidate, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, came in a distant fifth place with 12% of support. All other candidates polled in single digits: scandal-plagued former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Democratic San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan each polled at 5% support and former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa polled at 2%. Five percent of respondents were otherwise undecided.
The recent polling is the mirror image of late 2025 and early 2026, during which multiple polls — including one from Emerson College — showed Hilton and Bianco as the two leading candidates, essentially tied for the lead. This bolstered Republicans’ ambitious hopes that deep-blue California would, due its unusual primary system and a fractured Democratic field, send two GOP candidates to the general election.
“This poll should be a wake-up call for every Republican in California. An all-Democrat top two is no longer just a possibility. It’s a real threat,” Hector Barajas, spokesman for Steve Hilton, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement.
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