America and Russia Are Both Fighting Wars. Only One is in a Quagmire.

The latest round of fighting near the Strait of Hormuz, as American forces attempt to reopen it and Iran struggles to keep it closed, has mostly driven the largest conflict in Europe since World War II out of the headlines. On Friday though, sighs of relief echoed across the Kremlin, which had planned to dramatically downsize Russia’s annual World War II celebration for fear of a Ukrainian attack on Moscow during its most conspicuous ceremony. The short ceasefire and prisoner swap President Trump announced may not bring full peace, but it stops the bloodletting for a time.

Vladimir Putin's tacit admission that he cannot even secure Moscow's airspace without Trump's approval is the latest setback in his misbegotten attack on Ukraine. Many see Trump's campaign against Iran's nuclear program as a similar failure, but this view is mistaken. The two conflicts reveal important facts about the international balance of power. Russia is failing to defeat its much smaller next-door neighbor, and the United States is trying to manage the costs of compelling Iran to surrender its nuclear program. These are very different problems, and they show that Russia is falling behind.

There is no moral equivalence between America's military and Russia's child-stealing butchers, but at first glance, they seem to face the same tactical problem. Both countries opened their offensives with lightning strikes that did not topple their opposing government and then entered a longer operation. But that's where the similarities end.