The Strange Case of Lebanon’s 'Ceasefire'

If you follow the Middle East, you have likely heard about Lebanon’s “ceasefire” with Israel.

Think about that for a moment. A country whose army, the Lebanese Armed Forces, has not been in direct military combat with Israel since 1948 is now negotiating a ceasefire and engaging in peace talks. To the untrained eye, this sounds like progress. The Lebanese people have suffered continuously since the civil war began in 1975. War, corruption, economic collapse—just about every hardship imaginable has touched the country.

So any mention of peace is naturally welcomed. But this is not what it seems. This is a shadow peace. The actual fighting is not between Lebanon and Israel. It is between Israel and a non-state actor: Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is not just a militia. It is an Iranian-backed state within a state that has co-opted and taken over key Lebanese government institutions. It operates with its own command structure, its own strategic direction, and its own external alliances. Lebanon still exists as a country. But it does not fully control what happens within its borders.