Why Ukraine Cannot Become Part of the EU

Joining the European Union is not a declaration of good faith, but rather an entry into a legal and economic system. Membership means that a given country is able to adopt and implement the entirety of EU law—from judicial guarantees to public procurement to food chain supervision—while strengthening, rather than weakening, the common market, the common budget, and the relationship of trust between member states. The issues of supporting Ukraine and Ukraine’s EU membership cannot therefore be conflated: the former may be a decision interpreted as a geopolitical and humanitarian obligation, while the latter is subject to technical conditions, and if these are overridden, it will make the EU itself less able to function.

Ukraine submitted its application for accession in 2022 and was granted candidate status that same year. The European Council decided to open accession negotiations in December 2023, and the first intergovernmental conference was held on June 25, 2024, formally launching the negotiation process. In recent months, however, the focus of the debate has not been on the ‘pace of progress’ but on the political target date: Kyiv—and several actors in Brussels—are increasingly talking about Ukraine enjoying full membership around 2027 and accession being treated as a ‘security anchor’ of the peace framework. This logic is also reinforced by the political communication of Ursula von der Leyen and Marta Kos, the commissioner in charge of enlargement, which emphasises the acceleration of integration as a strategic goal. By contrast, some member states fear that acceleration would come at the expense of necessary reforms. This is precisely why the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, recently acknowledged that member states are not ready to give Ukraine a specific date for accession.

In any case, the pressure is palpable, and previously unthinkable ideas are already emerging in the discussions in Brussels, such as ‘partial’ or ‘reverse’ enlargement—meaning ‘minimal’ accession, with limited rights—which in itself indicates that acceleration is not in line with the traditional accession logic. Manfred Weber and the EPP have long been one of the strongest political drivers of enlargement, but even for them, accession should be a question of criteria and merits, not a mark in the calendar fixed in campaigns and geopolitical bargains.