The Ukraine War Has Cost Russia Everything, Putin Still Thinks Stopping Would Cost More

The Russia-Ukraine War is now entering its fifth spring. In February 2022, few (perhaps none) guessed that the war would last longer than the Eastern Front of World War II, but here we are. A quarter million or more Russians have died, along with nearly 200,000 Ukrainians. 

Russia’s economy has been disfigured by military mobilization, leading to high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a collapse of the technology sector.

Moscow has remained afloat by increasing its dependence on China, Iran, North Korea, and India, but has watched as allies and proxies have collapsed around the world. 

There can be no question that the costs to Russia have vastly exceeded what Putin expected when he launched the conflict. Indeed, they have grown beyond what any country might rationally have expected to gain from the conflict. 

Nor were these costs wholly unpredictable.

There’s a reason why so many observers, including Europeans, Russians, and Ukrainians, rejected the evidence in front of their eyes in February 2022.

Invading Ukraine did not make long-term sense for Russia, EVEN IF the operation had met the wildly optimistic timetables set by Russia’s leadership. Sanctions would have deformed Russia’s economy even as Moscow could have found itself contesting an extended Ukrainian insurgency, potentially backed by the Europeans.