What Next After the Bombing Stops?

Israel has sworn to kill Iran’s next Supreme Leader before he can say “Fatwah.” That is probably not an idle boast, as they appear to have a better handle on the ruling elites than the Persian security services. I suspect that aspiring ayatollahs are not fighting each other to get in line for the job, given the fate of the last group of would-be successors. The Israelis have made it clear that they don’t want any more theocratic rule in Tehran, as has President Trump and the majority of the Sunni neighbors of Iran. Our NATO allies and the European Union do as well, but they lack the intestinal fortitude to stand up to a major regional oil producer. (RELATED: US and Israel Continue to Degrade the Islamic Republic)

Trump has said that once the air defenses, ballistic missile capabilities, and nuclear production facilities of Iran, as well as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), are neutralized, he hopes the opposition will rise up and overthrow the regime. That would be a great thing, but there is a problem. We don’t really know how many of the potential revolutionaries there are. Israeli and U.S. intelligence regarding the movements and location of the ruling elites is excellent, but our cultural intelligence as to the true mood of the bulk of the population is far less precise. We don’t know the true numbers of the dissident population; however, we do believe that there are about 30,000 fewer than there were during the January uprising.

Chances are that the majority of the population will remain passive, but we need to expect that many — we don’t know how many — will support the regime. Whatever happens will not be a relatively peaceful European-style colored revolution or even an Arab Spring. There will likely be blood. Which side the secular police and security forces come down on will probably be critical to the eventual outcome.

President Trump has urged the dissidents in the population to rise up after the bombing has ended, but given the news and internet blackout, how will they know? I’m not sure if the civilian and military planners have thought that through. I hope so. If not, they should start doing so. However, there is a precedent for foreign forces trying to influence a foreign crowd in a real-time manner. I throw it out as something to think about.