How Long Can the Iranian Regime Hold On?

Just days after clerics in Iran celebrated the 47th anniversary of the revolution that brought them to power, the United States and Israel assassinated Iran’s senior leadership, razed its military infrastructure, and humbled the once seemingly impregnable theocracy. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior military and political leaders at the hands of their foremost adversary leaves a gaping vacuum. U.S. President Donald Trump seems to think that airstrikes will enable an uprising; he has urged Iranians to “take over” their government.

The bitter reality, however, is that the remnants of the regime are well armed and well entrenched. For years, they have been preparing for a scenario just like the one today. After decades of brutal repression, Iranians are poorly equipped to mount a successful challenge to clerical rule. When the guns fall silent, the most likely outcome is that some residual version of Iran’s revolutionary regime will remain intact, albeit more bloodied, battered, and vulnerable than at almost any point since 1979.

There is still hope for profound political change in Iran’s long-term future. But the air campaign that U.S. and Israeli forces are currently conducting is unlikely to bring it about. Whenever the war ends, Iran will enter a fraught and risky transitional period, during which Washington will likely find itself involved in some form of diplomacy with powerful factions inside Iran. The United States cannot allow the representatives of a defeated, discredited system to hijack that eventual postwar dialogue. That is why it is crucial for the United States to begin charting a course for the day after the fighting ends by seeking reasonable interlocutors. So far, however, there is no evidence of any serious planning by the Trump administration for what comes next. Washington cannot count on the regime to crumble or for Iranians to succeed in overthrowing their leaders. The United States must focus on how it can use a combination of military force and diplomacy to make sure that whoever leads Iran embraces a more humane and inclusive system of government.