For years, Donald Trump defined himself against the architects of the Iraq War. He cast Middle Eastern interventions as moral vanity projects paid for in American blood and treasure. He promised no more regime change. No more endless wars.
Yet as nuclear talks with Iran falter, American warships mass off Iran’s shores and bombers move into range. The president who rose by denouncing George W. Bush now finds himself reviving the logic of Bush’s Middle East policy.
How did we get here? More importantly: What does this moment reveal about American power—about what truly changes, and what never does?
The answer begins with the ambiguous outcome of last June’s 12-day war. Trump and his supporters—myself included—hailed Operation Midnight Hammer, which struck Iranian nuclear facilities, as a major military success. At the same time, Israel’s Operation Rising Lion dismantled Iran’s air defenses and severely degraded its ballistic missile capabilities.
On June 23, Trump cast the U.S.-brokered ceasefire as a triumph of American strength. On Truth Social, he declared that Israel and Iran had come to him “almost simultaneously” seeking “PEACE!” because “the time was NOW.” He promised “LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY” for both. The next day, his envoy Steve Witkoff spoke of a “long-term peace agreement that resurrects Iran” and delivers prosperity—one that would go “beyond even the ceasefire.”
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