A Billion Reasons Why Iran Is Losing

Duane Patterson 9:20 AM | September 29, 2026
AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura

The shyest man in the world, Cardboard Mojtaba Khamenei, alleged Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran and chief Morlock in a cave under the Persian Gulf, made a pronouncement a few days ago. Now of course, he did not do so publicly. No one has seen or heard from him since U.S. and Israeli air assets blew him, his dad, all of his dad's senior military and religious advisors, up. Puppet President Masoud Pezeshkian told Fox News' Bret Baier last week that he'd seen him in person a month or so ago, that he was alive, well, very much in control, and free to pursue a life of religious fulfillment. Bret just did avoid Pezeshkian's growing nose before it caused eye damage.

In Cardboard Mojtaba's latest missive about the state of the Islamic state, this is what he claimed. 

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When you're finished laughing and have resumed reading this column, you'll of course agree that Iran is not the world's leading power. It's not the leading power in Asia. It's not the leading power in the Eastern Hemisphere. It's not the most powerful country in the Middle East. 

In fact, there are seven countries that share a land border with Iran. The Islamic Republic doesn't even crack the top three among its neighbors, and that includes Afghanistan, Armenia, and Turkmenistan, the Rockies, Angels, and Athletics of the greater Middle East. With the state of Iran as it is, getting progressively weaker by the day, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iraq would all have its way with the crumbling regime. 

But if you want a billion other reasons why this claim is wildly untrue, all you have to do is look at what CENTCOM has been doing with the amazing work of the men and women of America's armed forces. 

In two months of securing first one, then two lanes of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a billion barrels of oil have flowed into the Arabian Sea and off to Asia, India, and other destinations around the world. In that two-month time, the daily average, which has fluctuated up and down depending on Iranian drone harassment, is 16.67 million barrels a day. That doesn't include what flowed through the Saudi Arabian East-West pipeline, which we'll get to in a little bit, it certainly doesn't include the increased production out of Venezuela, and it doesn't include what we're doing here in the United States. 

During the two-week window where the Memorandum of Understanding was in force and Iran was permitted to export oil, they got around 30 million barrels out. In two months, they've "sold" about half of it. China has been slow walking the offloading, playing games with the terms of sale. According to the regime in Tehran, they really haven't seen much, if any, of that oil revenue at all. 

Miad Maleki of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, @Miad_Maleki on X, details why Iran is not happy with how their only customer these days is treating them. 

Pezeshkian telling Fox that Iran’s money is stuck in China is not a slip. Regime officials have been quietly complaining for a while.

Hojatollah Mirzaei, head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce Research Center, 2024: 92% of Iran’s oil goes to China at a ~30% discount, Iran does not decide how it is paid, and China says “take electric buses at the price I name.” He called it a “19th-century colonial trap.”

Gholamali Jafarzadeh, chair of the Majlis budget commission, 2025: “The Chinese, citing sanctions and FATF, would not hand over our oil revenue.” 

For all the problems China poses to U.S. national security, it has been no ally to the regime in Tehran either: Beijing is America’s third-largest trading partner, yet for Iran it is an unreliable customer whose entire trade with the Islamic Republic, discounted oil included, amounts to less than 1% of China’s total trade.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was on Sunday Morning Futures on Fox with Larry Kudlow, and said Iran's saleable oil inventory is about gone. 


Iran still has no answer for the blockade on their ports, or for the escort service being provided by American forces in Hormuz. A few months ago, all it took was one drone strike on a tanker to stop ships from moving. Now? Our sailors and Airmen are using converted X-Box controllers to play video games with lasers to blow them up. 

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Michael Kaplan from the New York Post reports. 

The US military has been deploying lasers in the Strait of Hormuz to knock out regime hardware, taking out “drones and incoming cruise missiles at a much lower cost than using more expensive kinetic weapons like missiles,” the Department of War recently confirmed. 

The US project to harness laser power has been 50 years in the making and outstrips the capabilities of any other military on Earth. 

“We can very specifically track and target drones and put the spot exactly where we want it, [in order] to disable its sensors or kill [i.e. explode] the drone itself,” Mark Neice, president of Directed Energy Consultants, which works with the military, told The Post.

Iran, the most powerful country in the world, according to a cardboard cut-out leader that may or may not exist, don't have the lasers, and they don't have the navy on which to attach them even if they did. 

If you'll recall, for a period of time, when American forces intercepted Iranian tankers trying to break the blockade, Centcom boarded the ships. There were about half a dozen or so that were captured. No one was quite sure where they would end up. Now, we do. 

About $600 million in Iranian illicit crude is meandering its way to the United States. Wouldn't that be fun if six million barrels of Iranian crude helped fill our Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Or better yet, we refine it and use it ourselves? 

Oil prices shot up north of $100 a barrel after an Iranian-backed militia group out of Iraq hit a couple pumping stations on the Saudi East-West pipeline, bringing the region's largest Hormuz bypass option to a standstill. The media reports, including a lot of people claiming to be experts, said it would be several months before the pipeline was back up, and we should be prepared for a major oil crunch and skyrocketing prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with Energy Secretary Chris Wright, said they'd been in constant contact with their Saudi counterparts and were assured that Aramco workers would have the pipeline back up sooner rather than later, even if at reduced capacity. Much of the Trump-hating media complex didn't believe a word of it. 

Much to the media's chagrin, Aramco came through right on schedule. 

The pipeline's full capacity is a little over seven million barrels a day. Before it got attacked, they were averaging around four. A three-and-a-half million barrel restart is pretty good. That feeds the Yanbu facility on the Red Sea coast, which will export about two-thirds of it as crude either through al-Mandeb or the Suez Canal. The other third will be refined into gasoline and diesel, and then exported. And that's on top of 16-plus million barrels a day through Hormuz, most of it Saudi, but also Bahrain, UAE, and Iraqi oil traversing as well. 

Why is oil still so high when supplies are at pre-war levels, or on some days, higher than pre-war levels? Too many drones, missiles, and bullets are flying around both straits in the region for comfort. There's a risk premium baked into the price until the Houthis are handled, and whether or not the Iranian regime collapses before pulling another card up their sleeve. 

With regard to the Houthis, they still hold Yemen's capital city of Sana'a...for now. They also still occupy the strip of land on the Red Sea coast near Mokha. But day by day, a coalition of Yemeni, Saudi, and government-backed militia forces including the Giant Brigades are systematically whacking Houthis in the mountains overlooking the coast, and moving closer to roads that serve as Houthi supply lines. 

I showed you a few examples of this new Saudi toy being used against Houthis both in the mountains and the flatlands of Yemen last week. It appears to be a Kasir or Breaker missile. They're no less deadly than they were last week, it's safe to report. 

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This truck allegedly carried around a Houthi commander. The round that painted him was designed to destroy a tank in one shot. A Toyota with a bed liner didn't stand a chance. If you're on the receiving end of one of these, it's going to ruin your whole day. 

Remember a bit ago when I said Houthi supply lines are being threatened? You've seen what these Breaker missiles will do to a regular vehicle or a tank. Now imagine what it can do if it paints a Houthi supply truck carrying ammo or fuel. 

The body count of Houthi fighters keeps adding up. 

And the fighting is not contained to Yemen's south and western regions. About 35 miles north of Sana'a, this is what filled the night sky. 

Those were not Houthi drones practicing. Coalition forces are gradually boxing in the Houthis to the coast by taking the high ground, and the Yemen government says they will not stop advancing until they take back the capital. And the Houthis are now having to watch this to their north. It can't be a comfortable feeling. 

The U.S. and Israel in the first 72 hours of kinetic action against Iran carried out 1,700 air strikes. That's a lot of ordnance spread out over a very large country. The pro-government forces in Yemen have pulled off just under half of that against Iran's last remaining proxy in the same time interval. If every available Houthi not overdosed on khat fought, they've had half the manpower Iran once had, about a tenth of Iran's missile capability, and a fraction of their naval or light infantry vehicles. The Houthis are getting pounded just like the Iranians did in the opening stages, proportionately speaking. Whether it continues at this pace remains to be seen, but videos are leaking that indicate the constant attacks are having the desired psychological effect. 

Houthi hardliners that have been in the fight for over a decade are getting disillusioned after getting whacked at every turn and facing the economic realities that the entire world is turning against you. 

It reads eerily like IRGC and Basij forces in Iran coming to the conclusion that the regime's promises of victory just aren't happening. 

Inside Iran, it was the first week of school. But instead of the annual Staples ad with the joyous father loading up the cart with glee, dancing to Andy Williams singing 'The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year', this is what schoolkids face on their first day back. 

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That's the bad news. Sorry about your dad getting gunned down in the street by the regime, kid. But here's the good news. We've got a slightly used gun we want to give you so that you can take the place of the deserter who killed your father in the first place but disappeared because he wasn't getting paid. 

At the other end of the educational spectrum, college students are not happy about their circumstances. They're basically having to pay through the nose for starvation rations, and they're protesting. 

At another university, this one in Tehran, they're protesting a little more publicly. 

The faces are being blurred to protect them from being identified, but this is exactly how the January mass protests began — by students. And like the January uprising, all of a sudden, internet is getting real spotty all over Iran. 

What is unlike January is that for the last week or so, there have been a lot of firefights taking place between regime forces and rebels. In the southeast, Baluchis want independence. 

Fighting was severe enough it took out an IRGC commander fairly high up. 

Meanwhile, in the west, the Kurds are still standing up to the regime. 

Two men affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij, identified as Eslam Kak Darvishi and Mullah Mohammad Nezhati, have been killed in separate armed attacks in Piranshahr County. 

According to information obtained by the Hengaw Organization for Human Rights, Eslam Kak Darvishi, a longtime IRGC member in Piranshahr, died from his injuries at a medical facility in the city in the early hours of September 12, 2026. 

A group calling itself Khori Hiva (Sun of Hope) claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement accompanied by images. The group said it had targeted Darvishi because of his positions and activities in support of the Iranian government. 

In posts on its Instagram account, the group also stated that Darvishi had named a street in the village of Kuper after Qassem Soleimani following Soleimani’s death and had written the slogan “Labbaik Ya Khamenei” (“We answer your call, Khamenei”) on the door of his home.
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As for daily life in Iran, another week, increased levels of misery. You want gasoline? Bring a sandwich. 

Cooking oil costs a fortune in Iran, so naturally, they're diluting that with water, too. 

Iran's currency, the rial, continues to plummet in value. 

What does that look like? Imagine going into a store to pick up a new iPhone. Here's what you have to bring to make that purchase this week. You'd need to make a second trip to the car for another bag of cash by next week. 

Need medicine? Good luck. 

Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent grounded Iranian airplanes. How did Cardboard Mojtaba, leader of the most powerful country in the known and unknown universe react? By threatening other airline traffic. 

Let me get this straight. The Iranians, who say the Strait of Hormuz is closed as a billion barrels they can't stop flowed less than 20 miles from their shore for the last two months, is now going to put that non-blockade at sea strategy into place in the skies over which they also have zero control? Remember, a little over a week ago, American and Israeli fighter planes flew a lap around Tehran and back before the Iranians even knew they were there, let alone with them able to do anything about it. And we're supposed to believe they're going to go after commercial airline traffic at 35,000 feet? With what? Laser pens? 

Here's the aviation reality. The hangar, wherever it may be, is closed to Iran.

Iraq is turning its back. 

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So is Turkey. 

Tajikistan turned an Iranian flight around mid-flight. 

Iranian banks continue to run into roadblocks internationally. This time, the Italians got on board with sanctions. 

Even Al Jazeera's reporting on conditions in Iran is better than American media. And by better, I mean reporting anything on Iran. 

Do you remember reading earlier about our poor hardliner Houthi, sitting in his car, miserable at high inflation, conditions deteriorating, and angry at al-Houthi, their fearless leader, for getting them into this mess in the first place? He has a comrade in Tehran within the Basij Force. This is another true believer in the cause looking around and wondering how it all went so wrong. 

The crack within the remnants of the Iranian regime looks more like a chasm. Why? There's open speculation not about if, but when to replace Cardboard Mojtaba. 

Late last night, or Tuesday morning in Tehran, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf made the following nonsensical threat. 

Give him partial credit. He's half right. Iran is not selling oil. They're trying to sell what little they have left afloat to China, and China is basically stealing it out from under them. They had another six million barrels that tried to run the blockade. We seized it, and now we're stealing it. 

As for the rest of Ghalibaf's threat, within the GCC nations alone, a billion barrels has safely reached open seas for delivery around Europe and Asia. Venezuela is pumping out 1.3 million barrels a day, a little over half of which is coming to the United States well below market price. 

As for the United States, we're drill, baby, drilling like we've never drill, baby, drilled before. 

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The Iranian regime, thinking they got the better of Donald Trump with the M.O.U., realized the deal was untenable for them and broke it repeatedly within two weeks. Today, conditions on the ground and in the regime's bank accounts have worsened to the point where the same regime hardliners hellbent against negotiating then are begging to return to the M.O.U. It's not going to happen. Donald Trump checkmated them for a fraction of the cost in blood and treasure we spent over 20 years in the Global War on Terror, and the regime is paying dearly for that miscalculation. 

In his final question at Monday's Oval Office press conference, President Trump was asked about nagging high gas and diesel prices. He responded with a capstone of all the good that's come out of his first two years in office this term. 


Imagine what the midterm cycle would be if our the media didn't have selective amnesia comparing the Trump and Biden records. Under Biden regency policies and decisions, Americans soon saw 9.1 percent inflation and $5 gas. We paid a premium for a lot of bad choices that also let Iran metastasize as a nuclear threat. 

Donald Trump's inflation rate is a third of the Biden years, and the price we're paying for gas and diesel is a bargain for what is emerging out of the Middle East when the terrorists are finished off. The realignment is well worth it, and the economic boom underway resulting in real wage growth as the economy transitions back from service to manufacturing will make whatever pain at the pump we're facing this year a distant memory soon enough.

A billion barrels in two months. Remember that stat the next time you see Abdul El-Sayed or any one of dozens of his socialist comrades on television telling you about Iran being a quagmire.

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are once again respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

Help us continue to report on the administration’s peace through strength foreign policy and its successes. Join HotAir VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.

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DONALD TRUMP HOUTHIS IRAN ISRAEL SAUDI ARABIA YEMEN

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