The Houthis Are Now in The Kill Box

Duane Patterson 12:40 PM | September 14, 2026
AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Depending upon where you get your news about unfolding events in the Middle East, you probably have seen varying degrees of hysteria that the region is falling apart and about to fall into a full-scale war that will send oil to levels we have never witnessed. 

To be fair, in the last week alone, there were a couple of attacks that took place sending sent oil speculators breathing into paper bags. But not to be lost in the equation is Ukraine's increasing lethality when it comes to targeting and executing strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure. Whether it be oil storage facilities, ports, or refineries, Ukraine is carrying out strikes that weaken the much larger invader to their east, and it's hard to blame them for doing it. They're trying to win a war and reclaim land stolen by the Russians. In so doing, however, they've hurt Russia enough that the net exporter of both oil and refined fuels like gasoline and diesel is no longer supplying the world market. They are worried about not having enough fuel themselves to get through another Russian winter, so they're keeping what energy capabilities remaining for themselves. That has sent oil and fuel prices skyward as much as anything going on in the Gulf. 

However, the two events that took place, both being remedied in their own way, were a jolt to the system, and it'll take a bit for the market to even itself back out. One of those incidents was a drone strike on a pumping station on the western half of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. The strikes originated from Iran-backed militias in Iraq, and it has temporarily taken the pipeline, responsible for around seven million barrels a day of crude bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, offline. 

The second event is unfolding in real time. In Yemen, one of the countries that borders the other waterway chokehold in the region, the al-Mandeb Strait leading to the Red Sea, the Houthis were surrounded by multiple armed forces in the center of the country, but exploited a weakness in the Saudi Arabian line to the southwest, and made a run for it through the mountains until they reached flat terrain on the coast of the Strait. The Houthis made short work of Mokha, and even took a couple of the channel islands in the Strait itself. 

CNN's Nic Robertson was downright giddy with excitement to report on how brazen the Houthi maneuver was, and how this meant so much more trouble now for Donald Trump and the Americans. 

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We'll come back to what's going on with each of those fronts in due course, but in order to understand how and why we got there, we have to update on the increasingly deteriorating conditions inside Iran due to Operation Epic Fury, then Operation Economic Fury, and most recently, Operation Economic Outcast, the layering on of increased sanctions on the Iran regime's ability to use its neighbors for backchannel access to the financial system.

Israel's Channel 14 reported from sources inside the regime that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the blusterous blowhard serving as Iran's Parliament Speaker, was caught admitting to others inside the government that the regime won't be able to stand this economic pressure much longer. Here's Dror Balazada:

Iran's currency continues to devalue, and inflation continues to climb higher than oil prices. One account puts the annualized inflation rate at 144 percent.

And that may be the low end of the spectrum. Other accounts show that the combination of economic forces at work now are causing inflation to rise to the two percent mark... per day!

Many businesses have closed. Others might as well close. 

One store owner has no money, no customers, and no home to go to after another busy day of...no business. 

Iranians trying to stretch their rials like Gumby in order to get basic staples are resorting to making videos to explain to outsiders what the same money they've always made now gets them at the store. 

You think I'm kidding. Let's say you want a couple potatoes not to have with dinner, but as your total caloric intake for the day. That's going to set you back a bit, like a million rials, except that was last week's price. 

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How are Iranians surviving? The same way the regime is — by putting everything on credit. As long as everyone just borrows from everyone else but no money actually changes hands, it'll work for a while until the food runs out and the banks collapse. 

One store is offering a 10 percent discount if you pay in American dollars, an actual currency. 

For the criminal element in Iran, it's no longer money, jewelry, cars, or anything like that they're after. Armed robberies are for the really valuable goods — Chicken, rice, eggs, beef, canned goods, and cooking oil. 

Fuel costs continue to soar, and lack of refining capacity is compounding the gas and diesel lines. 

This Iranian does not appear to be pleased at all to wait so long and pay so much for so little fuel, much of it diluted with water. 

Even the Wall Street Journal got in on the act and President Trump took notice that they covered it. 

I mentioned diluted gas. Here's another example of why it's not a fluke in distribution as the regime claimed as a one-off problem. 

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This stuff wouldn't get a bag of Kingsford hot in an Hibachi, much less run an engine for any length of time. 

Now let's say you have a car that runs, and you actually have gas. Now all you need is...a road that won't consume your car and the precious little gas you do have. 

Water levels are so low in other regions of Iran that the regime has literally drawn all the water out of some of the rivers, which didn't give the fish that remained much of a chance. 

For several IRGC and Basij forces, it's getting too hard to get by and still support the regime. 

For others, sadly, current Iranian life is too much to bear. 

President Trump had no problem admitting last week to disabling or sinking close to 10 Iranian oil tankers loitering in the Gulf because of the blockade in response to Iranian strikes on commercial traffic going through Hormuz. But there was another tanker late last week that got struck. 

Was it struck by our Navy? Not even President Trump will 'fess up' to this one. 

That's not exactly a Shermanesque no, is it? So what's the big deal about this particular ship? It was around Qeshm Island, which is basically Iran's equivalent of a safe harbor. We're technically not supposed to be able to operate that close to the Iranian shore on the water. Air strikes? Sure. Navy? This is an interesting attention-getter by the President. 

Many in the American media invested in Trump failure with regards to the Iran war are maintaining the illusion that Iran hasn't really lost anything as far as their military industrial complex, and that they are rebuilding much quicker than ever and will be good as new, free to fulfill a life of religious fulfillment soon enough, to quote Leslie Nielsen's Dr. Rumack in Airplane! 

Before the Americans and Israelis opened up on Iran with Operation Epic Fury on the last day of February, Iran was a supplier of Shahed-136 drones to Russia for their war with Ukraine. Now? Iran is begging Russia to supply them with Geran-2's, which is Russia's knock-off clone of the Shahed. Why? Iran no longer has the capacity or money to build them on their own, and they're begging Russia to help. 

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Even the Iranian nuts are escaping the asylums because of deteriorating conditions. 

And finally, in the southeastern region of Iran in Saravan, trouble isn't coming for the regime. It's already there. 

Right now, it's confined to one city. If that spreads, this is what the beginning of a civil war looks like. 

Now, as promised, let's address the two times the regime lashed out with successful damage last week. In Saudi Arabia, around Riyadh and Medina, a section of the East-West pipeline and a pumping station attached to it were hit by drones that originated in Iraq by Iran-backed proxies. Iraq was horrified, and immediately replaced their military commanders, seized 15 drone launcher platforms, and did a number on the area. The Iraqi government notified the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of the region that they will not be a part of any further disruption to the region's oil flow, and they want no part of Iran's proxy network. They've got just as much at stake as the rest of their GCC neighbors in keeping oil flowing. This is not what they wanted, and they acted with haste to remove the threat and those in command who allowed it to happen on their watch. 

As for Saudi Arabia, it's been a mixed bag this week. We'll get to their poor performance holding up their part of the containment ring around the Houthis and IRGC advisors in Yemen in a bit, but as far as the pipeline goes, I think there's a bit of a misdirect going on. There are lots of media and speculators invested in Trump's defeat saying the pipeline is all but destroyed, the pumping stations will take between six weeks to six months, with others claiming a years-long delay, and without enough reserves in Yanbu, in a couple weeks, there will be an oil flow disruption that will cause prices to skyrocket. 

I'm not buying into the panic. First, the blockade is still in place. Ships are methodically moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Three ships a day more than what currently travels makes up for the seven million barrels going through the pipeline. That's if the oil has to temporarily move entirely via tanker again. 

According to satellite imagery after the attack, it looks like there's a bypass section of pipeline just about in place. 

Yes, the pumping stations will take weeks to rebuild, but portable pumps can be brought in in the interim. The flow rate will not be the same as before, but oil will still flow. And at the mouth of the pipeline, in Dammam, friction modifiers, which are essentially a polymer mixed in with the crude to help it flow easier through the pipeline, will help compensate for the lack of full pumping capacity at the bypass site. 

In Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, Captain Kirk and Mr. Spock engaged in a little coded metaphor as a deception. Stuck on a planet with no ability to beam back up, they talked "by the book". If hours were days, we couldn't be powered up for six days, but partial restoration might be in two days, by the book. Two hours later, Kirk and his crew beamed up. My hunch is that the pipeline will be flowing, even if at reduced capacity, very soon, with full capacity returning sooner than we think. 

As for the Houthi adventure, early in the week, the last remaining functional Iranian terror proxy group, and their IRGC advisors, were getting their heads handed to them by the Yemeni armed forces. 

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Houthis had no air power, and were essentially surrounded. 

But then, the Saudis' contingent failed to hold their southwest line, and the Houthis made a run for it. Before the Yemeni forces could react, Mokha and a couple islands had fallen, and everyone already against the war with Iran started the 'all is lost' routine. They assumed that the al-Mandeb Strait had essentially fallen, and that no oil would move at all, and Iran finally had the upper hand. 

This obviously was not a great development, but I did not believe for a second that it was the strategic victory for the Houthis, and by extension, Iran, as was reported. Why? 

The conditions around Sana'a, where Yemeni forces were systematically taking over former Houthi territory and wiping them out had not changed one bit. Yes, some of the Houthis were temporarily out of harm's way. But where did that leave them? Their backs to the sea, mountains in front of them, and flat terrain that offer very little places to hide. They still have no air power, limited munitions, even though they picked up some of the U.S.-made vehicles the Saudis left behind, but no reinforcements, and no one in Iran coming with the cavalry. It seemed to me all weekend that they were sitting ducks in a defenseless position. Turns out my hunch was right. 

Not 24 hours passed before U.S. advisors from Centcom were in Saudi Arabia encouraging, chastising, and providing targeting. 

While Saudi forces were regrouping and standing up, the Yemeni forces also reoriented, and resumed the fight against the Houthis now that they were in the 'Kill Box' along the coast. 

Houthi snipers tried to hide out in the mountains northeast of the coastal strip. Their high ground wasn't high enough for Yemeni air assets. 

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30 hours without another significant Houthi strike. Why? They're getting creamed. 

And then the Saudis showed up. 

All over Yemen, Houthis are taking it in the shorts right now, but maybe not more so than in Ma'rib, east of Sana'a. This is allegedly what the Houthis rounded up for the battle royale. 

Toyotas are fine trucks. Decent gas mileage. Would you like a look at who's doing a lot of riding on those trucks? Kids on drugs. 

Regardless of who is on those trucks, or what they're on, war is hell. Yemen isn't kidding around. 

Reporting from inside Yemen seems to indicate that the foothold the Houthis had over the al-Mandeb Strait can now be measured in Scaramucci's, because they weren't there very long. 

After flying up to 300 sorties at the Houthis, a volley of missiles were sent back to Saudi Arabia by what's left of the Iran proxy. But Houthis are losing fighters daily, and replacing them with stoned youth isn't going to give them the victory Iran is seeking. 

Oil speculation gets twitchy when uncertainty is introduced, but while exactly no one is happy about gas or diesel prices, me included as a Californian, perspective is important. First, at least as far as the Middle East goes, the instability is temporary. The underlying death throes of the Iranian regime are ongoing, and at some point, the life will leave them. No regime can withstand systemic economic collapse like Iran is experiencing.

I cannot hazard a guess as to when or if the Russia-Ukraine war will get to the point where both sides can't afford to take any more damage and agree to end the fighting. But what I can offer you is how the oil spike right now compares to other crises in history compared to today's dollars. 

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Yes, oil prices are way too high. Diesel shortages are real and problematic. But what we're seeing now isn't the worst by historical standards if you compare dollar values then versus dollars today. The oil market is adapting to last week's incidents. Oil will continue to flow. Refining capacity has to become a priority for the Trump administration during his last two years to be sure, but now is not the time to take our boot off the neck of the regime. 

Keep calm and defeat the communists. 

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are once again respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

Help us continue to report on the administration’s peace through strength foreign policy and its successes. Join HotAir VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.

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DONALD TRUMP HOUTHIS IRAN SAUDI ARABIA YEMEN

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