Thursday's Final Word

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

But watching you tab alone, all of my doubt suddenly goes away somehow ...

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Ed: The hard truth is that Europeans *can't* do their own thing without us. They know it, we know it, Mark Rutte keeps trying to explain it, but they still want to dictate terms to us. Refusing overflights for US forces is not the act of a friend, and it's more hostile than simply refusing to participate in the effort to finally disarm Iran. 

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Axios: House Republicans thwarted an attempt by Democrats to pass a war powers resolution on Thursday that would block President Trump unilaterally restarting hostilities with Iran.

Why it matters: The vote would have been largely symbolic — the measure faces an uphill battle in the Senate and could be vetoed by Trump – but Democrats are desperate to show voters they are using every tool at their disposal to end the war.

Democrats are expected to force a vote on the measure when the House returns to session this week.

"War powers is a privileged resolution, we plan on calling the privilege next week when we're back," Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) told reporters.

Ed: What's the popular definition of insanity again? What's most amusing about this is that they called the vote while Trump is honoring a cease-fire agreement ... that Iran is largely ignoring. Democrats can force a vote on this when they all return next week, but there's zero chance of it passing. It's entirely performative. Plus, even if it passed in both chambers, Trump can veto it. 

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Ed: Pence is entirely correct here. We need to put an end to the regime or at least eradicate all of its ability to industrialize its threats against the West. "Finish the job" should be the mantra here. 

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The Free Press: Conflicts over strategic and commercial waterways—especially straits and canals—are nothing new. Back in 1507, the Portuguese decided to set up a fortress to control the Strait of Hormuz. It taxed commerce for a century before Persia and Britain joined forces to evict them. Today, Iran is attempting to claim the toll-keeper role that Portugal once played, demanding that any permanent peace deal recognize its right to impose fees on ships passing through the strait. The theocratic tyranny that has ruled in Tehran for 47 years wants to determine who can trade through one of the world’s great choke points—and what they must pay for the privilege.

This cannot stand. The Iranian regime must not be allowed to turn the seven other states that border the Persian Gulf, most of them good friends of the United States, into its vassals. Nor should the rest of the world submit to Iran’s extortions.

The United States and its allies have dealt with Iranian threats to traffic in the strait before. The last major disruption was during the Iran-Iraq War, which led in 1987-88 to an international effort to provide naval escorts for convoys of oil tankers. This time, too, Iran must fail in its bid to become the master of Hormuz, with the power to tax or block a fifth of the world’s supply of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, to say nothing of urea, sulfur, and other crucial commodities.

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Ed: This is a very good essay on some outside-the-box options as well as historical precedents for dealing with conflicts through contested waterways. It's well worth reading in full. It also provides a little more context for Trump's remarks yesterday to ABC's Jonathan Karl about joint tolls through Hormuz, which is still a very bad idea but may have been an allusion to earlier arrangements. 

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Ed: Keir Starmer is a clown. See below. 

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Madeline Grant at The Spectator: There’s an entire glorious genre of photos that we might tentatively entitle: ‘Keir Starmer standing in front of people who visibly loathe him.’ His trip to the Gulf this week means we can add military personnel to the list of people who’ve been subjected to these grey reluctant photobombs, alongside oil workers, school children and the cabinet.

Sir Keir’s latest trip is a masterpiece in ambulance chasing. He has jetted out, thus conveniently avoiding being present for the slow-motion multi-clown car pile-up that is his party’s local election campaign, to the Middle East in a desperate attempt to be involved in the de-escalation of the Iran war. Sir Keir’s decision not to be involved – even if it was taken basically by accident – was a wise one, however it is baffling why he thinks, having been unable to even mobilise one warship, anybody would be hanging on his word when it comes to clearing up the mess. Yet here he comes, clattering in, the Frank Spencer of international relations: ‘I have just one thing to say to all sides: “Ooo Betty!”’

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Starmer’s actual pronouncements out in the Gulf were no less ridiculous.

Ed: Margaret Thatcher saved the UK from irrelevance by sheer dint of will and personality. Starmer has entirely reversed Thatcher's progress. And he might end up losing the islands that Thatcher recovered from Argentina, not because he doesn't think they belong to the UK, but because his government is too impotent to have the option to save them – and he has torched the "special relationship" that might have otherwise helped Starmer and the UK from avoiding that humiliation. 

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Ed: Stupid Media Tricks #1. The lesson here is that anonymous sources on stuff like this are unnecessary in the first place. If the source can't go on the record to talk about something as ordinary as a candidate filing for an election, it's either a trial balloon by third parties or entirely made up. 

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Politico: Pam Bondi’s ouster has uncorked long-simmering disputes among powerhouse lawyers who spent years in the trenches for Trump and his allies. Those battles forged allegiances that are now driving the backroom politicking to lead a department already in turmoil, hemorrhaging veteran prosecutors and facing credibility concerns in the courts.

It’s not just about who will be the next attorney general. It’s also a referendum on which of the many factions within Trump’s uneasy coalition will emerge as the dominant force inside the most scrutinized Cabinet department of his second term. Here’s a look at the emerging dynamics in the fight for control of Trump’s DOJ:

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At the center of the battle is Harmeet Dhillon, a media savvy veteran of Republican Party politics who has led DOJ’s Civil Rights Division in the second Trump term. Dhillon’s eponymous law firm spent years taking on conservative legal causes and represented Trump himself when he was subpoenaed by Congress’ Jan. 6 select committee and when he was sued by lawmakers and police officers for his role in the attack on the Capitol.

Ed: I'd be fine with Dhillon, and probably prefer her over the other candidates on this list. Lee Zeldin works for me, too. The rest of these might have more trouble getting confirmed. I'm not relying on Politico's analysis of the relative merits of each choice, but the scorecard is useful. 

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Ed: I agree with Mark Levin, including the point that Trump has more information than either of us. MacCallum is incorrect in the strict sense that it's not the same guys, but that the nature of the new guys doesn't differ from the previous guys. I still would have played out the string on escalation first to ensure that the new guys got the message. We'll see. 

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Axios: House Democratic leadership took a noticeable step Wednesday towards embracing a long-shot push to remove President Trump from office through the 25th Amendment.

Why it matters: The time it takes for Democratic leadership to yield to riled-up rank-and-file lawmaker demands is getting shorter and shorter.

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Congressional Democrats largely repudiated the notion of pursuing long-shot maneuvers like impeachment or the 25th Amendment a year ago.

But the political cost of opposing even the most drastic anti-Trump tactics has risen considerably. Democratic lawmakers don't want to get an earful from the party faithful for being insufficiently combative.

Ed: I may write about this again, but this is unbelievably ignorant. The 25th Amendment does not give Congress any role in initiating a removal. That has to come from the VP and Cabinet and be brought to Congress if the president objects to a finding of disability. This came up repeatedly during the Biden Regency as well as during the first Trump term. It would fail in this Congress anyway, not least because Democrats are in the minority. The only exception to that is if Congress creates a board by statute to conduct a competency investigation, but that would be subject to a presidential veto. The only mechanism that Congress can use is impeachment and removal. Thus, there is no "step" for Democrats to take, noticeable or otherwise. 

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This will keep the Fed on hold for the foreseeable future.

Ed: It will definitely go higher in March. It's one of the risks of war. I doubt it will go crazy, because this is primarily a short-term supply issue rather than a long-term breakdown of supply chains, as was occurring in 2021 when Biden made the mistake of applying a massive stimulus to the demand side. But higher transportation costs will definitely impact PCE inflation in March and likely in April as well. 

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Ed: Mais, non! DeGaulle fought. It will be the 'Philippe Pétain.' IYKYK. 

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Ed: Hmmmmm. This might be attacks from one of the other Gulf states that Iran keeps targeting with missile and drone strikes. Stay tuned. 

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