Alternate headline: Iran Lied. Again.
That may not qualify as breaking news, since the Iranian regime has lied about practically all of its threats to the region and beyond. The theocratic-military junta has lied for 47 years about its sponsorship of terrorism, and they lied over and over again about their pursuit of nuclear weapons. Those lies got exposed over and over again, and yet leaders in Europe and the US kept insisting that the regime could become a trustworthy partner in non-proliferation talks.
Iran just exposed another lie, one that should rattle Europe. The IRGC launched a missile attack on the joint US-UK base in Diego Garcia, at a range of 2400 miles (~4,000 kilometers) or more. The attack failed, but that range doubles what Iran had admitted in previous talks, and the reach of those missiles puts most of Europe within range of attacks. Fox News notes the implications of this long-suspected but denied capability in the last 90 seconds of this clip from earlier today:
Three weeks ago, the Iranians insisted that their ballistic-missile systems had a range no farther than 2,000 kilometers/1250 miles. During the final phase of negotiations, the regime refused to discuss imposed limits on their missile systems, insisting they were entirely defensive:
Speaks for itself:
— Brett McGurk (@brett_mcgurk) March 21, 2026
Feb. 25, 2026: “We are not developing long-range missiles… we have limited the range below 2,000 kilometers” — Iran’s FM Araghchi (IRNA).
March 20, 2026: Iran fires missiles at Diego Garcia—ranging 4,000 kilometers (WSJ). ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/F4ncRLSGq3
That changes the threat profile Iran presents, and changes it dramatically. These missile systems put most of Europe in range of an Iranian ballistic missile attack:
Bigger story here: implied range of an Iranian IRBM from a launch box in central Iran, with a range of ~4500 km (distance to Diego Garcia).
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 21, 2026
Theoretically could also target sites into Central Europe. pic.twitter.com/8KCQtsHPQ4
Depending on the location of the launchers, every capital in Europe could be within this system's target range. Most already are, as this map demonstrates, which assumes the launchers would be located in central Iran. Moving the launchers to the area of the Azerbaijan or Turkey border would shift the range considerably to the west. Lisbon might be too far a reach, but London and Madrid would be at least within theoretical range of this advanced ballistic-missile platform.
Interestingly, but not surprisingly, few if any other media outlets have reported on this revelation about the threat range of the Iranian regime. Bloomberg noted it and provided a potential explanation:
Iran launched ballistic missiles at the joint US-UK military base in Diego Garcia on Friday, demonstrating a weapons capability that goes beyond what Tehran was known to have possessed.
The base, a strategic airfield that can host B-2 stealth bombers located nearly 2,500 miles (4,000 kilometers) away from Iran, suffered no damage, according to a person familiar with the matter speaking on condition of anonymity.
It was the first time in the three-week-old war that Tehran was reported to have deployed weapons with that kind of range, with one expert suggesting it may have used a modified space launch vehicle to conduct the attack. US and Israeli strikes have already destroyed some parts of Iran’s satellite and rocket programs.
For decades, Iran claimed that its "space" program was for peaceful purposes. That's also what they claimed about their uranium-enrichment and nuclear-power programs as well. Analysts warned that the Iranians intended to build ICBMs that they would eventually use to threaten or attack Europe and the US. Donald Trump raised this point explicitly while justifying the decision to go to war. This new attack on Diego Garcia shows that the Iranians had progressed much further toward that goal than they admitted, and their refusal to negotiate on their ballistic-missile programs proves they intended to develop that threat fully ... and put nuclear warheads on top as well.
At least the feckless Starmer government in the UK understands the stakes a little better after this development:
The United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense called Iran's strikes against its military base at Diego Garcia island "reckless," reaffirming its stance to allow the United States to use its bases in the war.
"Iran's reckless attacks, lashing out across the region and holding hostage the Strait of Hormuz, are a threat to British interests and British allies," a spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense said in a statement. ...
Though Iran threatened to strike at U.K. bases on Friday after Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the U.S. would be allowed to use its bases for some Operation Epic Fury strikes, the ministry told CNBC that Iran's strikes on Diego Garcia were launched before Starmer's announcement was made.
Exactly, Starmer just got a whiff of what Iran had in mind for Europe. Let's see if the rest of the feckless set in Brussels figures it out.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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