Gee, this sounds familiar. I wonder if anyone ever used it before?
Tonight, Donald Trump gives the first official State of the Union address of his second term to Congress and the nation. (A year ago, Trump spoke to the joint session, but because he had just taken office, it didn't count as an official SOTU.) Trump will have plenty of material to cover from his first year in office, including the stunningly quick re-securing of the border, enhanced immigration enforcement, a sharp drop in violent crime over the past year, and so on. He may also address the imminent conflict with Iran.
But what will Trump emphasize in his speech tonight? The Wall Street Journal gives us a preview:
President Trump will use his State of the Union address to sell the public on the economy and unveil new measures meant to lower costs, as Republicans try to address voters’ concerns ahead of the midterm elections later this year.
The official theme of the speech, according to White House officials familiar with the draft: “America at 250: Strong, Prosperous and Respected,” a reference to the 250th anniversary of the country’s founding. The address will emphasize the idea of American exceptionalism, and the president is planning to weave in stories of Americans who say they have benefited from his policies, the officials said.
The address to a joint session of Congress will give the president a high-profile platform to tout his agenda. He is expected to tick through prominent policies, including tax cuts passed by Republicans in Congress last year and efforts to lower prescription drug prices. He is planning to call on Congress to pass a legislation codifying the healthcare framework he released earlier this year, which calls for redirecting federal subsidies from insurers to consumers. While some Republicans praised the plan, they have so far shown little interest in taking it up during a midterm election year.
At least Trump has some economic data in his sails while making this argument. Inflation keeps cooling, despite the pressure on imports from tariffs, and the jobs market took an unexpectedly bright turn last month after apparent stagnation in 2025. The latest GDP report didn't look good at all, but that was mainly the result of a Democrat-led government shutdown that lasted almost the entire quarter. The two previous quarters showed sharp growth and strength, and even the Q4 report included clear evidence of expanding investment and sustained consumer confidence.
Recent polling, however, looks less rosy for Trump and the GOP as they make their turn toward the midterms. The RCP aggregate for Trump's overall job approval shows the widest negative gap of his current term, -13.1 (42.7/55.8). Other than two iterations of the same Insider Advantage poll series, Trump hasn't had a positive job approval in any poll since December. His aggregate approval rating on the economy is even worse at -14.8 (40.8/55.6). And Trump isn't scoring well on foreign policy either, perhaps a reflection of the attention he's been forced to pay to it rather than the economy (-15.6, 38.5/54.1). He does marginally better on other issues:
- Immigration: -9.2, 44/53.2
- Crime: -4.5, 45.7/50.2
- Israel/Hamas: -4.7, 44/48.7
- Russia/Ukraine: -18.1, 37.3/55.4
The key for the midterms, as it usually is, will be shoring up Trump messaging on the economy. Midterms tend to reflect local concerns, as well as act as a midpoint assessment of the current administration. Trump has negative numbers baked into his approval ratings, so the red ink itself is not so much the issue. It's the widening gaps that Trump has to address tonight, in a speech that goes over the heads of the media filters and ankle-biters that will follow tonight's SOTU, if Trump wants a full range of action after the midterm election in his final two years as president.
Punchbowl recognizes this as the inflection point:
Trump still has a stranglehold on the GOP, which means rank-and-file Republicans are hesitant to break with him. He’s not quite a lame-duck. But the clock is ticking on the 119th Congress, and Republicans don’t have a lot to run on in November.
It’s against this backdrop that Trump will head down Pennsylvania Avenue for his sixth address to Congress, including during his first term. On average, more than 40 million people have tuned into each of Trump’s joint speeches to Congress.
The president is already projecting that today’s address will be quite a stemwinder. During an appearance at the White House on Monday, Trump proclaimed it will be “a long” speech.
“Because we have a lot to talk about,” Trump said.
How long will it be? Punchbowl predicts at least 90 minutes, which would break Bill Clinton's record at 88. (Trump's speech last year went 99 minutes, but it wasn't an official SOTU.) Trump had better trim it down a little more, though, as viewers who are not already squarely in his camp will tune out sooner than that. SOTU speeches tend to draw the base rather than the opposition or undecideds. If Trump wants to change minds tonight, he'd better front-load the speech with his economic message and save the foreign policy for later.
Andrew Malcolm and I preview tonight's event in our weekly podcast:
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