As I write this, the election results are still rolling in, but it's safe to say that the night was not a good one for Republicans.
I am told that I have a gift for understatement.
There are a lot of things to say about how poorly the Republicans did last night, and no doubt every single one of them — perspicacious or not — will be said in every way possible and far too many times for comfort.
But I want to keep my focus on one big point: Donald Trump's political instincts, at least when it comes to choosing candidates to run for office, are absolutely atrocious. He seems to have an almost uncanny ability to choose the wrong person to back.
Some White House reaction: "President Trump was not on the ballot, and it’s proven that Trump voters show up when he is on the ballot. Also, candidate quality matters, and President Trump did a better job promoting many of the candidates on the ballot than the candidates did themselves."
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) November 4, 2026
This election cycle, Trump's biggest whiff was Darlene Graham, who managed to lose a Senate seat in South Carolina, which you have to admit takes an unbelievable amount of negative charisma. Or maybe you think Ken Paxton was the worst choice, and you could be right about that one too.
Dr. Oz, who seems a decent enough guy for all I know, certainly didn't perform all that well when he ran in Pennsylvania, although we certainly dodged a bullet when Fetterman turned out to be sane enough to serve in the Senate.
Then there was Herschel Walker, who didn't exactly have the cut of the jib of a United States Senator. No doubt he is best buds with the president, and for all I know, plays a mean game of golf or something, but I have a sneaking suspicion he wasn't the best choice to run in that race.
Trump whiffed in Arizona not once or twice, but three whole times. Twice by backing Kari Lake, who is fun to watch on TV as she rips the Democrats a new one, but is perhaps not the optimal candidate in a purple state. Blake Masters should have won, so Trump may not be to blame.
At his best, Trump goes with his gut; at his worst, he does too, and when it comes to picking candidates, his gut shows what eating McDonald's all the time does to one's political constitution.
.@POTUS: I wasn’t on the ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. https://t.co/0TOdSWV3MG
— Salem News Channel (@WatchSalemNews) November 4, 2026
I don't want to overplay what happened last night. Obama, whom the Democrats still claim was a model president, got smackdowns of epic proportions in his midterm elections. This one was a bad night for Republicans and portends a bad two years for Republicans, but we don't yet have enough solid data to make too many judgments about what these elections mean for the future of the Republican Party.
It's easy to forget that Obama got CRUSHED in his midterms. Don't.
This is my take: Trump's failure to strike the killing blow in Iran cost us the midterms. Mollie Hemingway posted this chart, and it is quite telling:
Wow. From Raymond James. Trump approval mapped onto average gas prices. https://t.co/dcSgGg8NL6
— Mollie (@MZHemingway) November 3, 2026
Does that mean Trump was wrong to go in? It depends on whether Iran really was on the brink of getting a nuke. If so, he was right. If he went in because he thought it would be easy and look like Venezuela, then he got it about as wrong as one could. And in any case, he never properly sold the war as necessary.
I think this is right. Tonight was a massive referendum on the war. A war that was fought in spurts, never properly explained to the American people.
— Bethany S. Mandel (@bethanyshondark) November 4, 2026
But that's a question for history. Trump's judgment about candidate selection is not, and we should keep it in mind for 2028, when Trump won't be on the ballot, but his support could make or break a candidate.
Governor DeSantis SLAMS Trump for taking us to war in Iran and gaslighting voters! “He obviously ran saying he wasn't going to do a middle east war and they did. So we had some of our voters who've checked out because they're like I didn't want any more middle east wars and now we're doing it And what's happened is it's kind of an open-ended conflict and it's having a direct impact on people's finances. Gas is higher. It hurts people, working class people and it's higher because of this conflict. That's just a fact. If you can't admit that to voters then you're gaslighting them and they're not going to listen to you on other things.”
— Chris Nelson 🏝️🇺🇸 (@ReOpenChris) November 3, 2026
Governor DeSantis SLAMS Trump for taking us to war in Iran and gaslighting voters!
“He obviously ran saying he wasn't going to do a middle east war and they did.
So we had some of our voters who've checked out because they're like I didn't want any more middle east wars and now we're doing it And what's happened is it's kind of an open-ended conflict and it's having a direct impact on people's finances. Gas is higher. It hurts people, working class people and it's higher because of this conflict. That's just a fact. If you can't admit that to voters then you're gaslighting them and they're not going to listen to you on other things.”
As you all know, I was a DeSantis guy, and I still believe he would have been a better choice. But no "I told you so" here. Trump is our president, and he has made some tremendous choices as president.
But candidate-picking is not his forte.