UPDATE: Iran Walks Back Claim It Hit US Warship; CENTCOM: US Ships Transited Strait

South Korean Defense Ministry via AP

Iran claims that two of its missiles hit a US Navy warship that was trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the ship to retreat to safer waters. 

Unnamed US officials deny that any ships have been hit by missiles, although, so far, there has been no other information about the incident, assuming any of it happened. 

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It's unsurprising that Iran is making maximalist claims after President Trump announced Project Freedom, his plan to "guide" neutral ships out of the Persian Gulf. Initial reports from last night suggested that US destroyers would escort ships out of the Gulf, following Trump's major announcement on Truth Social. But Pentagon officials clarified that "guide" merely meant "give directions on safer routes." 

Fog of war, I suppose. 

So far, this situation remains unclear. Even without an escort mission, it is quite plausible that the United States would test the boundaries of Iran's claimed exclusion zone to see Iran's response.

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The incident occurred at the outer edge of Iran's area of control, and it would not be unusual for a military to test an adversary's responses. 

The US, so far, is not disputing that something happened, merely that a US ship was struck by a missile, although that could change. 

Trump has been, reportedly, unhappy about the pace of negotiations and wants movement. He apparently doesn't want to initiate hostilities again unilaterally, but doesn't want this to drag out indefinitely either. Project Freedom seems to be the middle ground that he has chosen. 

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Axios reports on the internal deliberations that led to Project Freedom:

President Trump was fed up with the "no deal, no war" stalemate in Iran. The operation he ordered to change that dynamic could ultimately lead back to war.

  • "The president wants action. He doesn't want to sit still. He wants pressure. He wants a deal," a senior U.S. official told Axios.

The intrigue: Trump was presented with a plan on Thursday night to send naval vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to open it by force. At the last minute, he opted for a more cautious approach, at least initially.



Driving the news: Starting Monday, the U.S. Navy will help U.S.-flagged and other commercial ships cross the strait by advising them on how to avoid mines and standing ready to intervene if Iran attacks them.

  • U.S. officials say there's no current plan for full-fledged naval escorts.
  • Instead, Navy ships will be "in the vicinity" and at the ready, alongside U.S. military aircraft.
  • U.S. military support to "Project Freedom" will include guided-missile destroyers, drones, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft and 15,000 troops, CENTCOM said.

President Trump had been briefed on a more aggressive plan to open the Strait that would have included full-scale operations, but decided to test the waters first. 

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Behind the scenes: CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper presented Trump on Thursday with a more ambitious plan to send Navy ships through the strait.

  • A U.S. official with knowledge of that plan said the U.S. would have taken out any missiles or fast boats the Iranians launched in response, and resumed the war with full force if Iran escalated by attacking Gulf countries.
  • The current version carries less risk of immediate escalation but could also leave the stalemate largely in place.

Even if Iran's report that anti-ship missiles were fired and struck a US vessel turns out to be completely false, it's clear that Trump has prodded Iran. They feel the need to up the ante in some way. 

Are things about to get kinetic again? 

The Magic 8 Ball says "yes." But when exactly is anybody's guess. 

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UPDATE: CENTCOM reports that US warships have transited the Strait of Hormuz and that two US-flagged merchant vessels have exited the Gulf. 

U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are currently operating in the Arabian Gulf after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in support of Project Freedom. American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore transit for commercial shipping. As a first step, 2 U.S.-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey.

CENTCOM seems to have set off a social media firestorm by referring to the Persian Gulf as the "Arabian Gulf." You would not believe how many Iran supporters are ticked off by that!

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🚨 BOOM! U.S. CENTCOM DENIES REPORT OF STRIKING A U.S. WARSHIP AS WHITE HOUSE CLEARS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ! 

The back-and-forth continues while the Trump administration runs a humanitarian mission to unclog the strait and free up ships that have been stuck for months — crews running out of food and supplies.

“We’ll guide their ships safely out of restricted waterways.”

Ships belonging to countries that did nothing wrong are finally getting freed up.

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