War, obviously, is a very high-stakes enterprise. Even a moron as dense as Tim Walz understands that, which is why he quickly retired when he was called up to deploy in the Middle East.
The halls of Congress sure looked safer to him, and no doubt they were.
But a lot more people than our soldiers and those of Israel are putting a lot of chips on the table. Everybody has been placing bets on the outcome of the war, and the list of winners and losers is going to be a lot longer than most people have thought about.
Here's a short list of the people and institutions that have placed their bets, and what is at stake for them should they lose:
- President Trump, obviously. His ability to govern and his legacy are tied to this operation.
- Israel. Duh.
- All the Gulf states, which have gone all in on taking out the Iranian regime.
- Russia
- China
- Keir Starmer
- France
- Spain
- Lloyds of London
- Hezbollah
- The European Union
- Gavin Newsom and the Democrats
Obviously, I am not going to go through the stakes for all these players, and I left out the Iranian regime, because that is an even bigger "Duh" than Israel and Netanyahu.
I've already written about Keir Starmer's peril. He has bet on failure and is putting all his eggs in the Islamist basket, and at least for him, that bet has already turned out to be a bad one. The attacks on a British air base and his weak response make him look like a low-T loser, and that is because he is.
I'm not even sure that he qualifies as a wanker, since that requires the ability to tumesce, at least in the original sense of the term.
From @WSJopinion: On Iran, Democrats offer only partisanship. Most oppose the war effort and even seem to hope for failure, write @Mark_Penn and Andrew Stein.https://t.co/K4HVeWtNOq
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 4, 2026
The Democrats' big bet is that Trump's regime change war—and they are right, this is almost certainly about regime change—will be a forever war. That, to me, seems unlikely, if for no other reason than the US is most certainly not putting divisions of soldiers on the ground, and there will not be a dramatic number of casualties.
If Trump manages to come out of this conflict with a collapsed Iranian regime, few casualties, and strengthened relations with Gulf states, no amount of Democratic Party griping will be able to hide the fact that Trump was right and they were wrong.
Americans love a winner, and the Democrats are betting on Trump being a loser. All the "international law" and "War Powers Act" arguments will be so much noise, and Democrats will be tarred as the America last party with persuadable voters. They will be driven even farther into the arms of the craziest wing of their party, and that will hurt them at the polls.
Gavin Newsom, who is, if nothing else, a great weathervane for what his party's electorate thinks, is betting that being anti-war is a winning strategy with the base, and hoping like hell that Trump fails, because otherwise his bet will turn out to be an awful one for the general election.
China and Russia placed their bets before the war, and they have already lost big time. China is losing its access to cheap oil, just as it did in Venezuela, and now has to replace nearly 20% of its oil supply, at higher prices too.
So when Trump started dropping bombs, the two countries had a choice, and they chose retreat (Ed will have more on that later). If Trump succeeds, and remember, it is early days, America will come out looking stronger; these countries will come out looking weaker both militarily (it is their equipment getting destroyed) and politically (they abandoned an ally in a time of need).
Xi Jinping will likely face some serious blowback because of Iran's abandonment, and his regime is already playing a high-stakes game on many levels. I doubt his regime is in trouble, but he sure has taken a serious blow.
And Lloyds of London? I bet you didn't think they would be in the mix, but their decision to cancel war insurance brought a swift response from Trump.
This is a ballsy power play by Trump.
— Steve Skojec (@SteveSkojec) March 3, 2026
Lloyd's of London was the gold standard for maritime insurance policies until just a day or two ago when they started cancelling policies or jacking them up 3-5X. Others insurers followed. That collapsed commercial shipping traffic through… https://t.co/C2Oa6PhC63
This is a ballsy power play by Trump.
Lloyd's of London was the gold standard for maritime insurance policies until just a day or two ago when they started cancelling policies or jacking them up 3-5X. Others insurers followed. That collapsed commercial shipping traffic through Hormuz, which choked oil shipments out of the Middle East.
Trump doing this means the DFC has the chance to displace Lloyd's as the big dog in this game, when they have been the lock-in player for many years.
It also frees up all the oil that was getting trapped there, heading off shortages and keeping the energy market alive.
And why not? It's the American navy that sunk the Iranian ships that were harassing tankers. And the American Navy -- at least for now -- will keep those tankers safe.
It's a huge reassurance to allies -- both oil producers and oil consumers -- that our campaign in Iran isn't going to sink their economies. And it allows America to be choosy about traffic in the Strait.
It also potentially means billions of dollars in insurance premiums at wartime rates going to America instead of the UK. And those rates are STILL going to be cheaper than what shippers were getting.
Trump just took a chunk of their insurance business away and is placing a bet on the US Navy, which already is the biggest guarantor of world shipping lanes in the world.
Who saw that coming?
Yesterday, I explained how seven insurance firms in London shut down one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
— Marc Gravely (@MarcGravely) March 4, 2026
Today, Trump may have just made the most aggressive sovereign insurance play in modern history.
Here's what happened and why it matters:
Trump ordered the U.S. Development… pic.twitter.com/LdCxIdi9p9
Trump is putting it all on the line, and his party's future for the next few years. If the bet turns out to be bad, he could be crippled. If it turns out well, the Democrats will pay a high price.
Everybody has placed their bets, with some betting on Donald Trump and America's armed forces, and a whole host of Trump opponents betting that he is a loser.
We still don't know how everything will shake out, but betting against Trump hasn't worked out too well for many people. He has a habit of winning at high-stakes games.
