The entirely apocryphal story of the frog getting boiled alive is scientifically wrong, but it illustrates a point that is worth considering: people might rebel at a sudden change for the worse, but be lured into enduring a long slow decline.
You've seen the memes that point out that we went from "love is love" to "trans the 2-year-old" in just a few years. If we jumped straight to puberty blockers at eight and mastectomies at 11 without first being inundated with Pride propaganda, the shift would never have happened. If the slippery slope is gradual, many people won't notice the slide until it's far too late.
Maybe. Probably. Although, as a Cassandra who is ignored while warning people about trends that won't end well, I still rage at the stupidity of people who won't listen. It's telling that people remember the Cassandra story as if Cassandra was the problem because she was so dour; in reality, she was the prophet, and her critics the idiots.
AS you know, Great Britain has been on a long, slow slide into that good (or really bad) night, but Konstantin Kisin argues that the collapse will come soon and dramatically, and that could turn out to be a good thing.
— Konstantin Kisin (@KonstantinKisin) December 16, 2025
His view (or hope?) is that Britain (and by extension much of the West) has been like an alcoholic who needs to hit bottom before he begins to get his life in order, and that his adopted country is about to smack onto the bottom of the deep well it has been falling into.
Two weeks ago, the water supply in the town where I live was suddenly shut off. We were told a batch of bad chemicals meant it was temporarily unsafe and that the problem would be fixed within a few hours. When a few hours had elapsed, we were told water supplies would be restored the following morning. The following morning, we were told it would be that evening. That evening, we were told it would be the following morning. The following morning... you get the picture.
After a few days of this, the water company stopped making any promises about the water returning at all. Eventually, after a few more days, water supplies were restored—except it was the contaminated water the entire process was started to address. So we had water, we just couldn’t use it. A neighbour who drank it by mistake ended up in hospital with E.coli, a sign of fecal bacteria in the water.
During this period, bottled water was provided for residents at various collection points. Driving home one night, I saw an African woman carrying a pack of 6 bottles on her head, like something out of an ad asking you to send £10 to help drill a well in sub-Saharan Africa.
It's a great metaphor, although to be fair, any system, even in the First World, can break down, and all bureaucracies lie to cover their own butts, but the metaphor fits in this case. Great Britain really is turning into a Third World country in many ways.
A month earlier, I was walking through a posh part of London when I saw a young man in a balaclava snatch a bag from a tourist. When I told people about what I saw at various meetings, most people were surprised that I was surprised. Phone thefts, muggings and all kinds of petty crime are now considered normal and routine.
My point is, Britain’s infrastructure is crumbling, illegal immigration is out of control and crime is rampant. And that’s a good thing.
For some time now, I’ve described myself as an “accelerationist”. What I mean by that is that Britain is stuck in a place we’ve all found ourselves in at some point in our lives, where our job, relationship, housing situation, addiction or something else is bad enough for us to be unhappy but not bad enough for us to do anything about it.
I suppose I find myself in much the same position, having suggested that we abandon the current education system from pre-K through universities, and I support many of Trump's populist policies because we have to destroy what is here and rebuild stronger institutions.
What I am sure of is whether we can accomplish the second part; the first is inevitable.
The examples of Chile and El Salvador suggest, so far, that it is possible to rebuild from rock bottom. The example of Rome, which is actually a pretty good analogue of the hyperpower United States, suggests otherwise.
Much of the political class, on both left and right, exhibits every sign of this malaise. It is increasingly common for me to meet people who think the Tories are making a comeback. These people are older, affluent and mostly protected from the consequences of the things they complain about for ideological reasons. Because of this, they misjudge the mood of the country and where it’s headed. There is a big difference between being annoyed at what you read in the Telegraph and being angry at watching your town and your community disintegrate around you.
As for Labour, it’s tempting to deploy a beloved metaphor and say that they are busy “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic”. That would be, in my view, unjustifiably generous.
Man, he is good, and a refutation of the notion that all immigration is bad. I am of the "skim the best, reject the rest" school of immigration, and Konstantin Kisin has shown the wisdom of that view. He is a great addition to Britain's intellectual life, and a hell of a writer.
Britain is like an alcoholic who has spent a decade reassuring himself that, despite his binges and blackouts, he is “high functioning”. The reality is, however, that he is increasingly not actually functioning at all. We are headed for the rock bottom we so badly need. The moment of clarity is coming. It will be painful. But it’s the only thing that can save this country.
The example of Trump in the United States makes me wonder. The US, unlike our European "allies," began its populist backlash a decade ago, with Trump elected by two slim margins in two elections to take a hammer to the old order and rebuild the country. As we have seen, the elite's immune system has fought back, with much success, against him.
I could list many policies he has pursued that I disagree with or about which I have doubts, but I have stuck by him because the alternative is inevitable decline and hitting "rock bottom." No elected official will ever satisfy all your preferences—if you are in love with a politician to the extent that you are blind to their faults, then you need to take a break and touch the grass as much as his haters do—but the United States desperately needs a populist rebellion and to develop a new elite.
What I am not sure of, though, is that the West is like an alcoholic who can get sober, or more like a decrepit and increasingly addled senior citizen who keeps getting taken in by phishing scams. Are we Rome, or El Salvador?
I fear the former, and hope for the latter.
Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher proved that reformers can rebuild even in desperate times, so there is hope. That's why we should keep fighting.
