Thank You Captain Obvious!

Hotels.com has a memorable series of commercials featuring "Captain Obvious." 

They stick with you because we all know a Captain Obvious--somebody who says the obvious thing while appearing very proud of their perspicacity. 

I am not in any way hostile to Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO. For a European, he ain't so bad. But I was struck by the fact that he finally admitted what any sane person realized long ago: Ukraine is not getting out of this war with the territory it controlled before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

🚨🚨🇺🇦 NATO Secretary General: a future peace agreement might involve a de facto recognition of Russian control over parts of Ukraine’s pre-war territory, particularly areas currently occupied by Russia, such as Crimea and portions of eastern and southern Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/rVtl7hJbNh

— Terror Alarm (@Terror_Alarm) August 12, 2025

We can have all the tedious discussions about how unfair this fact is, and talk about historical borders, Katherine the Great, wars with the Ottoman Empire, and agreements made as the Soviet Union collapsed. Have at it. I can make a case for the 2014 borders, the 1922 borders, whether the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Poland should have a piece of the country, or whatever other alternate histories you want to bring up. 

But there are facts on the ground that cannot be escaped, and one of them is that Russia will end this war controlling Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine. Short of NATO troops pushing the Russians out--a task we could accomplish in Eastern Ukraine, probably, but not Crimea, there is no other scenario with a likelihood much above 0%.

I'm not saying this because I like this fact. There are lots of facts I don't like at all, but have to live with. It just is, and it is good that Mark Rutte is stating these obvious facts in a way that few Europeans will. There is a lot of gauzy talk about fighting aggression, saving democracy, the rights and wrongs of the war, and other drivel that matters as much as my opinion of Hunter Biden's artistic skills. 

Every Ukrainian dying to reestablish the antebellum borders is dying in vain. That is a moral atrocity, and even if you think Russia getting more Ukrainian territory is also a moral atrocity, the latter is already an established fact on the ground. It cannot be made worse by admitting that it is, but the deaths can be prevented. 

Obviously, President Trump, Zelensky, and NATO should negotiate for the best possible deal to end the war. Handing over more Ukrainian territory than absolutely necessary to stop the killing would be wrong. But holding out for deals that will never happen is wrong as well--and deadly. 

Westerners have lost all sense of history, apparently believing that the archetypal war is World War II, which ended with unconditional surrender and victory conditions dictated by one side. World War II is an anomaly, not the norm, and even in that case, the conclusion of the war and the settlements were more chaotic than we remember. 

In most cases, wars have negotiated settlements. Territories are exchanged, concessions are made, and a new status quo is established. If you look at European borders today and wind them back over the past two to three centuries, you will immediately notice that the borders shift constantly. 

Here's a video showing the changes in European borders over the past millennium:

Two countries we think of as core European powers didn't even EXIST until the mid-19th century. Italy became a country in 1861 and Germany in 1871. We think of Prussia as extremely German--our image of the German military is Prussian. But actually the vast majority of Prussia is in modern-day Poland. Kant, the great German philosopher, lived in Königsberg, Prussia, which is now known as Kaliningrad, Russia. He never left his home city in his life, and he would likely be speaking Russian today.

Should Warsaw be returned to Germany? Of course not.

I am not suggesting that every invasion and border adjustment be ratified just to stop wars. It's just that you can't fight a war against reality itself, and Russia will retain what was previously Ukrainian territory whenever this war ends. 

Better sooner than later, because the result will be pretty much the same. 

• Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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